Forsyth County, North Carolina: hazard history
What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.
At a glance
What this means
- The event NOAA recorded most often here is Thunderstorm Wind, with 348 records.
- The costliest single record is Tornado in 1998: $50.0M in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
- The deadliest record is Thunderstorm Wind in 1997, with 1 death.
- FEMA has declared 25 disasters that named this county, most often for hurricane.
- The worst year for flood insurance claims was 2018, with 39 claims.
What this can't tell you
- What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
- Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
- Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
- A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
- Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.
Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)
FEMA declared 25 disasters that named Forsyth County between 1977 and 2026.
| Incident type | Disasters | Most recent |
|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | 11 | 2022 |
| Snowstorm | 4 | 1996 |
| Tropical Storm | 3 | 2024 |
| Biological | 2 | 2020 |
| Severe Ice Storm | 2 | 2003 |
| Drought | 1 | 1977 |
| Tornado | 1 | 1989 |
| Winter Storm | 1 | 2026 |
Most recent declarations
- EM-3637 2026 · Winter Storm · Severe Winter Storm
- DR-4827 2024 · Tropical Storm · Tropical Storm Helene
- EM-3617 2024 · Tropical Storm · Hurricane Helene
- EM-3608 2024 · Tropical Storm · Tropical Storm Debby
- EM-3586 2022 · Hurricane · Hurricane Ian
- EM-3534 2020 · Hurricane · Hurricane Isaias
- DR-4487 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
- EM-3471 2020 · Biological · Covid-19
- EM-3423 2019 · Hurricane · Hurricane Dorian
- DR-4412 2018 · Hurricane · Tropical Storm Michael
Not counted above: 12 statewide declarations, which covered every county in North Carolina. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.
Storms recorded by NOAA, by type
| Event type | Records | Deaths | Injuries | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 348 | 1 | 2 | $1.6M |
| Hail | 91 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Flash Flood | 59 | 0 | 0 | $435K |
| Winter Storm | 44 | 1 | 0 | $150K |
| Winter Weather | 36 | 2 | 0 | $20K |
| Strong Wind | 15 | 1 | 1 | $1.2M |
| Tornado | 5 | 0 | 7 | $52.5M |
| Heavy Snow | 4 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Hurricane (Typhoon) | 4 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Ice Storm | 4 | 0 | 0 | $400K |
| Lightning | 4 | 0 | 0 | $235K |
| Tropical Storm | 4 | 0 | 0 | $3.0M |
| Flood | 3 | 0 | 0 | $150K |
| High Wind | 3 | 0 | 0 | $1K |
| Heavy Rain | 2 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Cold/Wind Chill | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Debris Flow | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Frost/Freeze | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heat | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone. A storm filed against a forecast zone is counted in every county that zone covers, with the whole storm's damage; do not add these figures across counties.
Year by year
NOAA storm event records in Forsyth County each year. The busiest year was 2018, with 37 records.
Show the numbers for every year
| Year | Records | Deaths | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 15 | 0 | $25K |
| 1997 | 6 | 1 | $20K |
| 1998 | 19 | 0 | $50.0M |
| 1999 | 3 | 0 | $0 |
| 2000 | 18 | 0 | $0 |
| 2001 | 2 | 0 | $0 |
| 2002 | 8 | 0 | $0 |
| 2003 | 20 | 0 | $290K |
| 2004 | 10 | 0 | $0 |
| 2005 | 10 | 0 | $0 |
| 2006 | 33 | 0 | $0 |
| 2007 | 28 | 0 | $195K |
| 2008 | 24 | 0 | $2.5M |
| 2009 | 19 | 0 | $28K |
| 2010 | 35 | 0 | $94K |
| 2011 | 31 | 2 | $1.1M |
| 2012 | 28 | 0 | $43K |
| 2013 | 11 | 0 | $525K |
| 2014 | 16 | 1 | $413K |
| 2015 | 14 | 0 | $26K |
| 2016 | 20 | 1 | $120K |
| 2017 | 24 | 0 | $83K |
| 2018 | 37 | 0 | $872K |
| 2019 | 22 | 0 | $39K |
| 2020 | 36 | 0 | $1.8M |
| 2021 | 26 | 0 | $152K |
| 2022 | 31 | 0 | $1.0M |
| 2023 | 27 | 0 | $90K |
| 2024 | 16 | 0 | $41K |
| 2025 | 31 | 0 | $160K |
| 2026 | 10 | 0 | $29K |
Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.
Notable events
Costliest records
- Tornado · May 7, 1998$50.0MNOAA name: Forsyth County · 5 injuries · NOAA record 5648863
- Tornado · May 8, 2008$2.5MNOAA name: Forsyth County · 2 injuries · NOAA record 98573
- Tropical Storm · Oct 29, 2020$1.5MNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 924721
- Strong Wind · Feb 25, 2011$1.0MNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 286533
- Tropical Storm · Sep 30, 2022$1.0MNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 1058648
Deadliest records
- Thunderstorm Wind · Mar 5, 19971 deathNOAA name: Forsyth County · $20K damage · 1 injury · NOAA record 5596419
- Winter Weather · Jan 6, 20111 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 268298
- Winter Storm · Jan 10, 20111 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 278950
- Strong Wind · Mar 12, 20141 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · $10K damage · 1 injury · NOAA record 506142
- Winter Weather · Jan 20, 20161 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 614678
Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.
Flood insurance claims (NFIP)
The National Flood Insurance Program paid $4.7M on 437 claims in Forsyth County from 1978 to 2024.
| Year | Claims | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 39 | $723K |
| 2012 | 36 | $567K |
| 2003 | 36 | $349K |
| 2020 | 28 | $511K |
| 1979 | 24 | $384K |
A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.
Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in Forsyth County
A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.
| Hazard | Prob. | Basis, from the county record |
|---|---|---|
| Hurricane / Tropical Storm | 3 | 8 NCEI events over 31 years (0.26/yr). 14 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Severe Thunderstorm | 3 | 443 NCEI events over 31 years (14.29/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Flood, External | 3 | 64 NCEI events over 31 years (2.06/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm | 3 | 88 NCEI events over 31 years (2.84/yr). 6 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Tornado | 2 | 5 NCEI events over 31 years (0.16/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Drought | 2 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| High Wind (non-convective) | 2 | 18 NCEI events over 31 years (0.58/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Epidemic | 2 | 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Temperature Extremes | 1 | 3 NCEI events over 31 years (0.10/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Wild Fire | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Earthquake | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Landslide | 1 | 1 NCEI event over 31 years (0.03/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Tidal Wave / Tsunami | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Volcano | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Dam Inundation | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in Forsyth County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.
How this page was made
- Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
- NOAA files some events against a county and others against an NWS forecast zone, and publishes a code for both. Records are counted as Forsyth County by that code — county records by the county's own FIPS code, zone records through the National Weather Service's published list of which counties each zone covers. No name matching is involved. Of 630 records, 510 were filed against this county and 120 against a forecast zone covering it. A zone storm is counted in every county its zone covers, and its damage figure is the whole storm's, not this county's share — NOAA does not publish that split. So these figures describe this county; they must not be added up across counties. Left out: 3% of North Carolina's NOAA records, which are marine zones or zones NWS does not map to a county.
- Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.
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Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.