Stafford County, Virginia: hazard history
What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.
At a glance
What this means
- The event NOAA recorded most often here is Thunderstorm Wind, with 232 records.
- The costliest single record is Tropical Storm in 2003: $14.1M in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
- The deadliest record is Winter Weather in 2004, with 2 deaths.
- FEMA has declared 20 disasters that named this county, most often for hurricane.
- The worst year for flood insurance claims was 2003, with 38 claims.
What this can't tell you
- What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
- Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
- Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
- A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
- Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.
Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)
FEMA declared 20 disasters that named Stafford County between 1972 and 2026.
| Incident type | Disasters | Most recent |
|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | 5 | 2018 |
| Snowstorm | 5 | 2016 |
| Severe Storm | 3 | 2022 |
| Biological | 2 | 2020 |
| Flood | 2 | 1985 |
| Drought | 1 | 1977 |
| Freezing | 1 | 1977 |
| Winter Storm | 1 | 2026 |
Most recent declarations
- EM-3631 2026 · Winter Storm · Severe Winter Storm
- DR-4644 2022 · Severe Storm · Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm
- EM-3448 2020 · Biological · Covid-19
- DR-4512 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
- EM-3403 2018 · Hurricane · Hurricane Florence
- DR-4262 2016 · Snowstorm · Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm
- EM-3359 2012 · Hurricane · Hurricane Sandy
- DR-4072 2012 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms And Straight-line Winds
- DR-1905 2010 · Snowstorm · Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms
- DR-1874 2009 · Snowstorm · Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm
Not counted above: 3 statewide declarations, which covered every county in Virginia. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.
Storms recorded by NOAA, by type
| Event type | Records | Deaths | Injuries | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 232 | 1 | 1 | $2.9M |
| Flood | 78 | 0 | 0 | $100K |
| Winter Weather | 75 | 2 | 1 | $0 |
| Dense Fog | 69 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heat | 66 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Hail | 62 | 0 | 0 | $1.0M |
| Flash Flood | 33 | 0 | 0 | $58K |
| Frost/Freeze | 32 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Winter Storm | 29 | 0 | 0 | $5K |
| Tornado | 13 | 0 | 0 | $10.4M |
| Drought | 12 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Strong Wind | 12 | 0 | 0 | $14K |
| Excessive Heat | 11 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Cold/Wind Chill | 10 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heavy Rain | 7 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heavy Snow | 7 | 0 | 1 | $30K |
| Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | 6 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| High Wind | 5 | 0 | 0 | $50K |
| Tropical Storm | 4 | 0 | 1 | $14.2M |
| Ice Storm | 3 | 0 | 0 | $20K |
| Lightning | 3 | 0 | 0 | $6K |
| Funnel Cloud | 2 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Storm Surge/Tide | 2 | 0 | 0 | $250K |
| Blizzard | 1 | 0 | 0 | $5K |
| Waterspout | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone. A storm filed against a forecast zone is counted in every county that zone covers, with the whole storm's damage; do not add these figures across counties.
Year by year
NOAA storm event records in Stafford County each year. The busiest year was 2018, with 60 records.
Show the numbers for every year
| Year | Records | Deaths | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 20 | 0 | $489K |
| 1997 | 8 | 0 | $23K |
| 1998 | 15 | 0 | $32K |
| 1999 | 15 | 0 | $1.1M |
| 2000 | 24 | 0 | $7K |
| 2001 | 16 | 0 | $9K |
| 2002 | 20 | 0 | $13K |
| 2003 | 27 | 0 | $14.1M |
| 2004 | 12 | 2 | $1.6M |
| 2005 | 12 | 0 | $20K |
| 2006 | 21 | 0 | $75K |
| 2007 | 23 | 0 | $1K |
| 2008 | 32 | 0 | $10.2M |
| 2009 | 10 | 0 | $0 |
| 2010 | 28 | 0 | $82K |
| 2011 | 27 | 0 | $133K |
| 2012 | 47 | 0 | $24K |
| 2013 | 28 | 0 | $51K |
| 2014 | 25 | 0 | $0 |
| 2015 | 26 | 0 | $5K |
| 2016 | 55 | 0 | $0 |
| 2017 | 29 | 0 | $0 |
| 2018 | 60 | 0 | $6K |
| 2019 | 42 | 1 | $0 |
| 2020 | 47 | 0 | $44K |
| 2021 | 38 | 0 | $791K |
| 2022 | 21 | 0 | $56K |
| 2023 | 10 | 0 | $25K |
| 2024 | 16 | 0 | $290K |
| 2025 | 13 | 0 | $16K |
| 2026 | 8 | 0 | $13K |
Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.
Notable events
Costliest records
- Tropical Storm · Sep 18, 2003$14.1MNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · 1 injury · NOAA record 5335425
- Tornado · May 8, 2008$10.0MNOAA name: Stafford County · NOAA record 98712
- Thunderstorm Wind · May 7, 2004$1.5MNOAA name: Stafford County · NOAA record 5397425
- Hail · Apr 23, 1999$1.0MNOAA name: Stafford County · NOAA record 5695107
- Thunderstorm Wind · Jul 29, 2021$700KNOAA name: Stafford County · NOAA record 963957
Deadliest records
- Winter Weather · Feb 5, 20042 deathsNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · 1 injury · NOAA record 5386443
- Thunderstorm Wind · Apr 15, 20191 deathNOAA name: Stafford County · 1 injury · NOAA record 816762
Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.
Flood insurance claims (NFIP)
The National Flood Insurance Program paid $1.4M on 161 claims in Stafford County from 1979 to 2024.
| Year | Claims | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 38 | $496K |
| 2018 | 23 | $422K |
| 1996 | 14 | $120K |
| 2008 | 11 | $59K |
| 2016 | 9 | $2K |
A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.
Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in Stafford County
A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.
| Hazard | Prob. | Basis, from the county record |
|---|---|---|
| Hurricane / Tropical Storm | 3 | 6 NCEI events over 31 years (0.19/yr). 5 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Severe Thunderstorm | 3 | 297 NCEI events over 31 years (9.58/yr). 3 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Flood, External | 3 | 118 NCEI events over 31 years (3.81/yr). 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm | 3 | 115 NCEI events over 31 years (3.71/yr). 5 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Temperature Extremes | 3 | 125 NCEI events over 31 years (4.03/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Tornado | 2 | 13 NCEI events over 31 years (0.42/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Drought | 2 | 12 NCEI events over 31 years (0.39/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| High Wind (non-convective) | 2 | 17 NCEI events over 31 years (0.55/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Epidemic | 2 | 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Wild Fire | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Earthquake | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Landslide | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Tidal Wave / Tsunami | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Volcano | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Dam Inundation | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in Stafford County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.
How this page was made
- Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
- NOAA files some events against a county and others against an NWS forecast zone, and publishes a code for both. Records are counted as Stafford County by that code — county records by the county's own FIPS code, zone records through the National Weather Service's published list of which counties each zone covers. No name matching is involved. Of 775 records, 422 were filed against this county and 353 against a forecast zone covering it. A zone storm is counted in every county its zone covers, and its damage figure is the whole storm's, not this county's share — NOAA does not publish that split. So these figures describe this county; they must not be added up across counties. Left out: 4% of Virginia's NOAA records, which are marine zones or zones NWS does not map to a county.
- Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.
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Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.