Ellis County, Texas: hazard history
What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.
At a glance
What this means
- The event NOAA recorded most often here is Hail, with 311 records.
- The costliest single record is Hail in 2021: $20.0M in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
- The deadliest record is Flash Flood in 2004, with 2 deaths.
- FEMA has declared 24 disasters that named this county, most often for fire.
- The worst year for flood insurance claims was 2018, with 37 claims.
What this can't tell you
- What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
- Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
- Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
- A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
- Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.
Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)
FEMA declared 24 disasters that named Ellis County between 1989 and 2024.
| Incident type | Disasters | Most recent |
|---|---|---|
| Fire | 6 | 2011 |
| Severe Storm | 6 | 2015 |
| Hurricane | 5 | 2020 |
| Biological | 2 | 2020 |
| Severe Ice Storm | 2 | 2021 |
| Drought | 1 | 1993 |
| Flood | 1 | 2024 |
| Other | 1 | 2003 |
Most recent declarations
- DR-4781 2024 · Flood · Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding
- DR-4586 2021 · Severe Ice Storm · Severe Winter Storms
- EM-3554 2021 · Severe Ice Storm · Severe Winter Storm
- EM-3540 2020 · Hurricane · Tropical Storms Marco And Laura
- EM-3458 2020 · Biological · Covid-19
- DR-4485 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
- DR-4255 2015 · Severe Storm · Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds, And Flooding
- DR-4223 2015 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds And Flooding
- FM-2925 2011 · Fire · County Line Fire
- EM-3294 2008 · Hurricane · Hurricane Ike
Not counted above: 102 statewide declarations, which covered every county in Texas. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.
Storms recorded by NOAA, by type
| Event type | Records | Deaths | Injuries | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail | 311 | 0 | 0 | $22.3M |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 174 | 1 | 5 | $3.4M |
| Flash Flood | 100 | 2 | 0 | $6.4M |
| Drought | 74 | 0 | 0 | $501K |
| Heat | 39 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
| Tornado | 28 | 0 | 55 | $22.2M |
| Excessive Heat | 16 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
| Winter Storm | 13 | 0 | 0 | $310K |
| Lightning | 10 | 0 | 0 | $943K |
| Winter Weather | 10 | 0 | 0 | $55K |
| Flood | 9 | 0 | 0 | $120K |
| Heavy Rain | 7 | 0 | 0 | $108K |
| Ice Storm | 6 | 0 | 0 | $195K |
| Heavy Snow | 5 | 0 | 0 | $1.0M |
| Wildfire | 5 | 0 | 0 | $531K |
| Cold/Wind Chill | 3 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | 3 | 2 | 0 | $600K |
| High Wind | 2 | 0 | 0 | $25K |
| Strong Wind | 2 | 0 | 0 | $35K |
Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone. A storm filed against a forecast zone is counted in every county that zone covers, with the whole storm's damage; do not add these figures across counties.
Year by year
NOAA storm event records in Ellis County each year. The busiest year was 2023, with 63 records.
Show the numbers for every year
| Year | Records | Deaths | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 35 | 0 | $221K |
| 1997 | 23 | 0 | $70K |
| 1998 | 28 | 0 | $8K |
| 1999 | 16 | 0 | $252K |
| 2000 | 37 | 1 | $684K |
| 2001 | 24 | 0 | $59K |
| 2002 | 28 | 0 | $341K |
| 2003 | 12 | 0 | $500K |
| 2004 | 26 | 2 | $5.5M |
| 2005 | 28 | 0 | $153K |
| 2006 | 20 | 0 | $526K |
| 2007 | 20 | 0 | $693K |
| 2008 | 17 | 0 | $117K |
| 2009 | 17 | 0 | $210K |
| 2010 | 24 | 0 | $1.4M |
| 2011 | 56 | 0 | $1.4M |
| 2012 | 20 | 0 | $1.2M |
| 2013 | 14 | 0 | $951K |
| 2014 | 26 | 0 | $277K |
| 2015 | 43 | 0 | $9.1M |
| 2016 | 7 | 0 | $5K |
| 2017 | 20 | 0 | $29K |
| 2018 | 10 | 0 | $25K |
| 2019 | 27 | 1 | $11.1M |
| 2020 | 20 | 0 | $0 |
| 2021 | 33 | 2 | $22.3M |
| 2022 | 36 | 0 | $741K |
| 2023 | 63 | 0 | $347K |
| 2024 | 42 | 0 | $250K |
| 2025 | 39 | 1 | $214K |
| 2026 | 6 | 0 | $75K |
Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.
Notable events
Costliest records
- Hail · Apr 9, 2021$20.0MNOAA name: Ellis County · NOAA record 953159
- Tornado · Oct 20, 2019$10.0MNOAA name: Ellis County · NOAA record 856475
- Tornado · Dec 26, 2015$8.4MNOAA name: Ellis County · 46 injuries · NOAA record 606461
- Flash Flood · Jul 29, 2004$5.0MNOAA name: Ellis County · NOAA record 5412161
- Tornado · May 3, 2021$1.5MNOAA name: Ellis County · 8 injuries · NOAA record 947893
Deadliest records
- Flash Flood · Jul 29, 20042 deathsNOAA name: Ellis County · $20K damage · NOAA record 5412165
- Extreme Cold/Wind Chill · Feb 14, 20212 deathsNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · $600K damage · NOAA record 942638
- Heat · Sep 1, 20001 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5158274
- Excessive Heat · Jun 20, 20191 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 840706
- Thunderstorm Wind · Mar 8, 20251 deathNOAA name: Ellis County · $9K damage · 4 injuries · NOAA record 1243740
Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.
Flood insurance claims (NFIP)
The National Flood Insurance Program paid $5.9M on 154 claims in Ellis County from 1981 to 2024.
| Year | Claims | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 37 | $3.9M |
| 2007 | 15 | $213K |
| 2022 | 12 | $554K |
| 2015 | 11 | $140K |
| 2004 | 9 | $416K |
A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.
Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in Ellis County
A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.
| Hazard | Prob. | Basis, from the county record |
|---|---|---|
| Hurricane / Tropical Storm | 3 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. 5 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Severe Thunderstorm | 3 | 495 NCEI events over 31 years (15.97/yr). 6 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Flood, External | 3 | 116 NCEI events over 31 years (3.74/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm | 3 | 34 NCEI events over 31 years (1.10/yr). 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Temperature Extremes | 3 | 61 NCEI events over 31 years (1.97/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Drought | 3 | 74 NCEI events over 31 years (2.39/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Wild Fire | 3 | 5 NCEI events over 31 years (0.16/yr). 6 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Tornado | 2 | 28 NCEI events over 31 years (0.90/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| High Wind (non-convective) | 2 | 4 NCEI events over 31 years (0.13/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Epidemic | 2 | 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Earthquake | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Landslide | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Tidal Wave / Tsunami | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Volcano | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Dam Inundation | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in Ellis County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.
How this page was made
- Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
- NOAA files some events against a county and others against an NWS forecast zone, and publishes a code for both. Records are counted as Ellis County by that code — county records by the county's own FIPS code, zone records through the National Weather Service's published list of which counties each zone covers. No name matching is involved. Of 817 records, 635 were filed against this county and 182 against a forecast zone covering it. A zone storm is counted in every county its zone covers, and its damage figure is the whole storm's, not this county's share — NOAA does not publish that split. So these figures describe this county; they must not be added up across counties. Left out: 1% of Texas's NOAA records, which are marine zones or zones NWS does not map to a county.
- Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.
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Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.