Shelby County, Tennessee: hazard history
What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.
At a glance
What this means
- The event NOAA recorded most often here is Thunderstorm Wind, with 391 records.
- The costliest single record is Flood in 2011: $2.0B in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
- The deadliest record is Heat in 2007, with 14 deaths.
- FEMA has declared 28 disasters that named this county, most often for severe storm.
- The worst year for flood insurance claims was 2010, with 127 claims.
What this can't tell you
- What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
- Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
- Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
- A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
- Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.
Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)
FEMA declared 28 disasters that named Shelby County between 1973 and 2026.
| Incident type | Disasters | Most recent |
|---|---|---|
| Severe Storm | 17 | 2025 |
| Winter Storm | 3 | 2026 |
| Biological | 2 | 2020 |
| Flood | 2 | 2011 |
| Severe Ice Storm | 2 | 2021 |
| Hurricane | 1 | 2005 |
| Tornado | 1 | 1997 |
Most recent declarations
- DR-4898 2026 · Winter Storm · Severe Winter Storm
- EM-3635 2026 · Winter Storm · Severe Winter Storm
- EM-3625 2025 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding
- DR-4878 2025 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding
- DR-4735 2023 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms And Straight-line Winds
- DR-4729 2023 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms And Straight-line Winds
- DR-4691 2022 · Winter Storm · Severe Winter Storm
- DR-4645 2022 · Severe Storm · Severe Winter Storm
- DR-4594 2021 · Severe Ice Storm · Severe Winter Storms
- DR-4514 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
Not counted above: 1 statewide declarations, which covered every county in Tennessee. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.
Storms recorded by NOAA, by type
| Event type | Records | Deaths | Injuries | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 391 | 6 | 13 | $62.9M |
| Hail | 246 | 0 | 0 | $422K |
| Flash Flood | 196 | 4 | 6 | $86.3M |
| Heat | 92 | 47 | 187 | $0 |
| Excessive Heat | 41 | 18 | 1 | $0 |
| Winter Storm | 30 | 0 | 0 | $28K |
| Lightning | 27 | 2 | 9 | $1.7M |
| Winter Weather | 24 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
| Drought | 23 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Flood | 21 | 2 | 0 | $2.1B |
| Strong Wind | 18 | 0 | 0 | $262K |
| High Wind | 12 | 0 | 0 | $140K |
| Cold/Wind Chill | 11 | 12 | 0 | $0 |
| Tornado | 11 | 4 | 14 | $103.3M |
| Heavy Snow | 5 | 0 | 0 | $2K |
| Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | 3 | 5 | 0 | $0 |
| Frost/Freeze | 2 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heavy Rain | 2 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
| Ice Storm | 2 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Freezing Fog | 1 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
| Tropical Storm | 1 | 0 | 0 | $30K |
| Wildfire | 1 | 0 | 0 | $70K |
Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone. A storm filed against a forecast zone is counted in every county that zone covers, with the whole storm's damage; do not add these figures across counties.
Year by year
NOAA storm event records in Shelby County each year. The busiest year was 2023, with 104 records.
Show the numbers for every year
| Year | Records | Deaths | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 26 | 0 | $309K |
| 1997 | 14 | 1 | $161K |
| 1998 | 25 | 0 | $1.3M |
| 1999 | 24 | 0 | $383K |
| 2000 | 12 | 1 | $26K |
| 2001 | 23 | 0 | $2.3M |
| 2002 | 35 | 0 | $216K |
| 2003 | 25 | 1 | $40.1M |
| 2004 | 22 | 1 | $111K |
| 2005 | 19 | 0 | $982K |
| 2006 | 28 | 2 | $435K |
| 2007 | 39 | 14 | $706K |
| 2008 | 54 | 6 | $101.7M |
| 2009 | 46 | 10 | $1.0M |
| 2010 | 90 | 26 | $79.1M |
| 2011 | 65 | 8 | $2.0B |
| 2012 | 38 | 5 | $205K |
| 2013 | 14 | 0 | $380K |
| 2014 | 19 | 1 | $51.1M |
| 2015 | 30 | 5 | $596K |
| 2016 | 39 | 5 | $1.7M |
| 2017 | 55 | 1 | $10.1M |
| 2018 | 41 | 0 | $322K |
| 2019 | 39 | 2 | $3.3M |
| 2020 | 23 | 0 | $174K |
| 2021 | 32 | 4 | $319K |
| 2022 | 36 | 0 | $21K |
| 2023 | 104 | 3 | $6.1M |
| 2024 | 41 | 4 | $240K |
| 2025 | 84 | 1 | $192K |
| 2026 | 18 | 2 | $25K |
Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.
Notable events
Costliest records
- Flood · May 1, 2011$2.0BNOAA name: Shelby County · NOAA record 320303
- Tornado · Feb 5, 2008$100.0MNOAA name: Shelby County · 3 deaths · 13 injuries · NOAA record 82421
- Flood · May 1, 2010$50.0MNOAA name: Shelby County · NOAA record 229301
- Flash Flood · Jun 29, 2014$50.0MNOAA name: Shelby County · NOAA record 528664
- Thunderstorm Wind · Jul 22, 2003$40.0MNOAA name: Shelby County · 1 death · 3 injuries · NOAA record 5330204
Deadliest records
- Heat · Aug 5, 200714 deathsNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · 187 injuries · NOAA record 57884
- Heat · Jun 17, 20097 deathsNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 184931
- Excessive Heat · Aug 1, 20107 deathsNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · 1 injury · NOAA record 255074
- Heat · Jun 18, 20105 deathsNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 243724
- Excessive Heat · Aug 10, 20104 deathsNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 255199
Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.
Flood insurance claims (NFIP)
The National Flood Insurance Program paid $25.7M on 996 claims in Shelby County from 1978 to 2024.
| Year | Claims | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 127 | $8.0M |
| 2014 | 119 | $3.8M |
| 1979 | 101 | $475K |
| 2011 | 74 | $2.5M |
| 1987 | 52 | $655K |
A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.
Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in Shelby County
A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.
| Hazard | Prob. | Basis, from the county record |
|---|---|---|
| Severe Thunderstorm | 3 | 664 NCEI events over 31 years (21.42/yr). 17 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Flood, External | 3 | 219 NCEI events over 31 years (7.06/yr). 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm | 3 | 62 NCEI events over 31 years (2.00/yr). 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Temperature Extremes | 3 | 149 NCEI events over 31 years (4.81/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Hurricane / Tropical Storm | 2 | 1 NCEI event over 31 years (0.03/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Tornado | 2 | 11 NCEI events over 31 years (0.35/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Drought | 2 | 23 NCEI events over 31 years (0.74/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| High Wind (non-convective) | 2 | 30 NCEI events over 31 years (0.97/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Epidemic | 2 | 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Wild Fire | 1 | 1 NCEI event over 31 years (0.03/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Earthquake | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Landslide | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Tidal Wave / Tsunami | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Volcano | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Dam Inundation | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in Shelby County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.
How this page was made
- Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
- NOAA files some events against a county and others against an NWS forecast zone, and publishes a code for both. Records are counted as Shelby County by that code — county records by the county's own FIPS code, zone records through the National Weather Service's published list of which counties each zone covers. No name matching is involved. Of 1,160 records, 891 were filed against this county and 269 against a forecast zone covering it. A zone storm is counted in every county its zone covers, and its damage figure is the whole storm's, not this county's share — NOAA does not publish that split. So these figures describe this county; they must not be added up across counties.
- Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.
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Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.