Polk County, Tennessee: hazard history
What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.
At a glance
What this means
- The event NOAA recorded most often here is Thunderstorm Wind, with 174 records.
- The costliest single record is Flash Flood in 2003: $4.2M in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
- The deadliest record is Tornado in 2016, with 2 deaths.
- FEMA has declared 23 disasters that named this county, most often for severe storm.
- The worst year for flood insurance claims was 2003, with 16 claims.
What this can't tell you
- What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
- Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
- Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
- A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
- Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.
Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)
FEMA declared 23 disasters that named Polk County between 1974 and 2026.
| Incident type | Disasters | Most recent |
|---|---|---|
| Severe Storm | 12 | 2025 |
| Flood | 3 | 1994 |
| Biological | 2 | 2020 |
| Winter Storm | 2 | 2026 |
| Fire | 1 | 2001 |
| Hurricane | 1 | 2005 |
| Snowstorm | 1 | 1993 |
| Tornado | 1 | 1974 |
Most recent declarations
- EM-3635 2026 · Winter Storm · Severe Winter Storm
- DR-4898 2026 · Winter Storm · Severe Winter Storm
- EM-3625 2025 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding
- DR-4792 2024 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding
- DR-4712 2023 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, And Tornado
- DR-4541 2020 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds, And Flooding
- DR-4514 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
- EM-3473 2020 · Biological · Covid-19
- DR-4060 2012 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds And
- DR-1974 2011 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds, And Associated Flooding
Not counted above: 1 statewide declarations, which covered every county in Tennessee. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.
Storms recorded by NOAA, by type
| Event type | Records | Deaths | Injuries | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 174 | 1 | 1 | $972K |
| Hail | 36 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Winter Storm | 31 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heavy Snow | 18 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| High Wind | 13 | 0 | 0 | $158K |
| Flood | 10 | 0 | 0 | $15K |
| Tornado | 9 | 2 | 0 | $1.8M |
| Flash Flood | 5 | 0 | 0 | $4.2M |
| Ice Storm | 4 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Strong Wind | 4 | 0 | 0 | $22K |
| Funnel Cloud | 3 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Winter Weather | 3 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Drought | 2 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone. A storm filed against a forecast zone is counted in every county that zone covers, with the whole storm's damage; do not add these figures across counties.
Year by year
NOAA storm event records in Polk County each year. The busiest year was 2006, with 20 records.
Show the numbers for every year
| Year | Records | Deaths | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 17 | 0 | $10K |
| 1997 | 10 | 0 | $142K |
| 1998 | 10 | 0 | $114K |
| 1999 | 12 | 0 | $60K |
| 2000 | 13 | 0 | $11K |
| 2001 | 20 | 0 | $45K |
| 2002 | 10 | 0 | $45K |
| 2003 | 20 | 0 | $4.3M |
| 2004 | 10 | 0 | $86K |
| 2005 | 14 | 0 | $80K |
| 2006 | 20 | 0 | $183K |
| 2007 | 8 | 0 | $53K |
| 2008 | 12 | 0 | $95K |
| 2009 | 17 | 0 | $139K |
| 2010 | 19 | 0 | $69K |
| 2011 | 17 | 1 | $230K |
| 2012 | 10 | 0 | $1.5M |
| 2013 | 3 | 0 | $7K |
| 2014 | 7 | 0 | $35K |
| 2015 | 7 | 0 | $5K |
| 2016 | 6 | 2 | $0 |
| 2017 | 2 | 0 | $0 |
| 2018 | 10 | 0 | $1K |
| 2019 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
| 2020 | 8 | 0 | $0 |
| 2021 | 5 | 0 | $0 |
| 2022 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
| 2023 | 9 | 0 | $0 |
| 2024 | 7 | 0 | $0 |
| 2025 | 6 | 0 | $0 |
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.
Notable events
Costliest records
- Flash Flood · May 6, 2003$4.2MNOAA name: Polk County · NOAA record 5356343
- Tornado · Mar 2, 2012$1.4MNOAA name: Polk County · NOAA record 374103
- Tornado · Mar 29, 1997$100KNOAA name: Polk County · NOAA record 5596928
- Tornado · May 7, 1998$100KNOAA name: Polk County · NOAA record 5644086
- Tornado · Apr 27, 2011$50KNOAA name: Polk County · NOAA record 300458
Deadliest records
- Tornado · Nov 30, 20162 deathsNOAA name: Polk County · NOAA record 662323
- Thunderstorm Wind · Feb 28, 20111 deathNOAA name: Polk County · $15K damage · 1 injury · NOAA record 284395
Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.
Flood insurance claims (NFIP)
The National Flood Insurance Program paid $677K on 44 claims in Polk County from 1994 to 2020.
| Year | Claims | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 16 | $262K |
| 1995 | 7 | $69K |
| 2004 | 6 | $82K |
| 2020 | 5 | $115K |
| 2013 | 5 | $50K |
A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.
Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in Polk County
A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.
| Hazard | Prob. | Basis, from the county record |
|---|---|---|
| Severe Thunderstorm | 3 | 210 NCEI events over 31 years (6.77/yr). 12 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Flood, External | 3 | 15 NCEI events over 31 years (0.48/yr). 3 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm | 3 | 56 NCEI events over 31 years (1.81/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Hurricane / Tropical Storm | 2 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Tornado | 2 | 9 NCEI events over 31 years (0.29/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Wild Fire | 2 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| High Wind (non-convective) | 2 | 17 NCEI events over 31 years (0.55/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Epidemic | 2 | 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Temperature Extremes | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Drought | 1 | 2 NCEI events over 31 years (0.06/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Earthquake | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Landslide | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Tidal Wave / Tsunami | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Volcano | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Dam Inundation | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in Polk County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.
How this page was made
- Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
- NOAA files some events against a county and others against an NWS forecast zone, and publishes a code for both. Records are counted as Polk County by that code — county records by the county's own FIPS code, zone records through the National Weather Service's published list of which counties each zone covers. No name matching is involved. Of 312 records, 233 were filed against this county and 79 against a forecast zone covering it. A zone storm is counted in every county its zone covers, and its damage figure is the whole storm's, not this county's share — NOAA does not publish that split. So these figures describe this county; they must not be added up across counties.
- Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.
Related
Responsible for Polk County?
This page is the record of what has happened. Calchis also watches live NWS, USGS and NHC feeds against the places you name and alerts you when an event approaches them.
Free includes Live map + 3 triggers + 10 bond positions. Analyst is $149/mo for 1,000-location portfolios, ep curves, predictions, parametric triggers.
Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.