Lincoln County, Montana: hazard history
What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.
At a glance
What this means
- The event NOAA recorded most often here is Heavy Snow, with 138 records.
- The costliest single record is Flood in 2025: $31.0M in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
- The deadliest record is Winter Weather in 2022, with 2 deaths.
- FEMA has declared 14 disasters that named this county, most often for fire.
- The worst year for flood insurance claims was 1996, with 20 claims.
What this can't tell you
- What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
- Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
- Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
- A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
- Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.
Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)
FEMA declared 14 disasters that named Lincoln County between 1974 and 2025.
| Incident type | Disasters | Most recent |
|---|---|---|
| Fire | 4 | 2017 |
| Flood | 3 | 2025 |
| Biological | 2 | 2020 |
| Severe Storm | 2 | 1997 |
| Drought | 1 | 1977 |
| Hurricane | 1 | 2005 |
| Straight-Line Winds | 1 | 2025 |
Most recent declarations
- DR-4902 2025 · Straight-Line Winds · Severe Winter Storm And Straight-line Winds
- EM-3630 2025 · Flood · Severe Storms And Flooding
- DR-4901 2025 · Flood · Severe Storms And Flooding
- DR-4508 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
- EM-3476 2020 · Biological · Covid-19
- FM-5209 2017 · Fire · West Fork Fire
- FM-5211 2017 · Fire · Moose Peak Fire
- EM-3253 2005 · Hurricane · Hurricane Katrina Evacuation
- FM-2320 2000 · Fire · Mt - Northwestern Zone 1 Fire Complex
- DR-1340 2000 · Fire · Wildfires
Not counted above: 31 statewide declarations, which covered every county in Montana. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.
Storms recorded by NOAA, by type
| Event type | Records | Deaths | Injuries | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Snow | 138 | 0 | 0 | $3K |
| Winter Storm | 59 | 1 | 0 | $110K |
| Winter Weather | 59 | 4 | 0 | $0 |
| High Wind | 31 | 0 | 2 | $1.7M |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 29 | 0 | 7 | $1.6M |
| Flood | 18 | 0 | 0 | $31.5M |
| Strong Wind | 17 | 0 | 0 | $119K |
| Hail | 12 | 0 | 0 | $13K |
| Frost/Freeze | 10 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heavy Rain | 8 | 0 | 0 | $20K |
| Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | 5 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Cold/Wind Chill | 4 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Ice Storm | 3 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Avalanche | 2 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
| Excessive Heat | 2 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Funnel Cloud | 2 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heat | 2 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Blizzard | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Debris Flow | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Dust Devil | 1 | 0 | 0 | $2K |
| Wildfire | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone. A storm filed against a forecast zone is counted in every county that zone covers, with the whole storm's damage; do not add these figures across counties.
Year by year
NOAA storm event records in Lincoln County each year. The busiest year was 1996, with 32 records.
Show the numbers for every year
| Year | Records | Deaths | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 32 | 1 | $0 |
| 1997 | 17 | 0 | $2.0M |
| 1998 | 9 | 0 | $0 |
| 1999 | 12 | 0 | $0 |
| 2000 | 13 | 0 | $0 |
| 2001 | 11 | 0 | $0 |
| 2002 | 17 | 0 | $0 |
| 2003 | 8 | 0 | $0 |
| 2004 | 6 | 0 | $0 |
| 2005 | 7 | 0 | $0 |
| 2006 | 15 | 0 | $0 |
| 2007 | 10 | 0 | $65K |
| 2008 | 15 | 0 | $20K |
| 2009 | 7 | 0 | $4K |
| 2010 | 3 | 0 | $10K |
| 2011 | 30 | 0 | $42K |
| 2012 | 14 | 1 | $10K |
| 2013 | 25 | 0 | $33K |
| 2014 | 24 | 1 | $13K |
| 2015 | 6 | 0 | $62K |
| 2016 | 7 | 0 | $1K |
| 2017 | 15 | 0 | $61K |
| 2018 | 7 | 0 | $0 |
| 2019 | 10 | 0 | $144K |
| 2020 | 8 | 0 | $85K |
| 2021 | 11 | 0 | $683K |
| 2022 | 16 | 2 | $46K |
| 2023 | 5 | 0 | $2K |
| 2024 | 11 | 0 | $111K |
| 2025 | 24 | 0 | $31.6M |
| 2026 | 10 | 1 | $79K |
Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.
Notable events
Costliest records
- Flood · Dec 11, 2025$31.0MNOAA name: Lincoln County · NOAA record 1304729
- Thunderstorm Wind · Jul 21, 1997$1.5MNOAA name: Lincoln County · 2 injuries · NOAA record 5612755
- High Wind · Dec 17, 2025$610KNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 1306305
- Flood · May 1, 1997$543KNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5600147
- High Wind · Jan 13, 2021$500KNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 935959
Deadliest records
- Winter Weather · Nov 7, 20222 deathsNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 1060540
- Winter Storm · Nov 18, 19961 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5570310
- Winter Weather · Dec 19, 20121 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 424865
- Avalanche · Feb 22, 20141 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 504844
- Winter Weather · Mar 12, 20261 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 1316246
Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.
Flood insurance claims (NFIP)
The National Flood Insurance Program paid $467K on 37 claims in Lincoln County from 1980 to 2018.
| Year | Claims | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 20 | $176K |
| 1997 | 4 | $53K |
| 2011 | 3 | $29K |
| 1998 | 3 | $2K |
| 2018 | 1 | $20K |
A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.
Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in Lincoln County
A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.
| Hazard | Prob. | Basis, from the county record |
|---|---|---|
| Severe Thunderstorm | 3 | 41 NCEI events over 31 years (1.32/yr). 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Flood, External | 3 | 26 NCEI events over 31 years (0.84/yr). 3 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm | 3 | 260 NCEI events over 31 years (8.39/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Wild Fire | 3 | 1 NCEI event over 31 years (0.03/yr). 4 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| High Wind (non-convective) | 3 | 48 NCEI events over 31 years (1.55/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Hurricane / Tropical Storm | 2 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Temperature Extremes | 2 | 23 NCEI events over 31 years (0.74/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Drought | 2 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Epidemic | 2 | 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Tornado | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Earthquake | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Landslide | 1 | 3 NCEI events over 31 years (0.10/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Tidal Wave / Tsunami | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Volcano | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Dam Inundation | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in Lincoln County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.
How this page was made
- Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
- NOAA files some events against a county and others against an NWS forecast zone, and publishes a code for both. Records are counted as Lincoln County by that code — county records by the county's own FIPS code, zone records through the National Weather Service's published list of which counties each zone covers. No name matching is involved. Of 405 records, 60 were filed against this county and 345 against a forecast zone covering it. A zone storm is counted in every county its zone covers, and its damage figure is the whole storm's, not this county's share — NOAA does not publish that split. So these figures describe this county; they must not be added up across counties. Left out: 21% of Montana's NOAA records, which are marine zones or zones NWS does not map to a county.
- Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.
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Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.