Carbon County, Montana: hazard history
What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.
At a glance
What this means
- The event NOAA recorded most often here is Winter Storm, with 341 records.
- The costliest single record is Flood in 2011: $1.0M in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
- The deadliest record is Avalanche in 2010, with 1 death.
- FEMA has declared 13 disasters that named this county, most often for flood.
- The worst year for flood insurance claims was 2022, with 20 claims.
What this can't tell you
- What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
- Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
- Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
- A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
- Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.
Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)
FEMA declared 13 disasters that named Carbon County between 1978 and 2025.
| Incident type | Disasters | Most recent |
|---|---|---|
| Flood | 4 | 2023 |
| Fire | 3 | 2021 |
| Biological | 2 | 2020 |
| Severe Storm | 2 | 2011 |
| Hurricane | 1 | 2005 |
| Straight-Line Winds | 1 | 2025 |
Most recent declarations
- DR-4902 2025 · Straight-Line Winds · Severe Winter Storm And Straight-line Winds
- DR-4745 2023 · Flood · Flooding
- DR-4655 2022 · Flood · Severe Storm And Flooding
- FM-5392 2021 · Fire · Robertson Draw Fire
- EM-3476 2020 · Biological · Covid-19
- DR-4508 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
- DR-4405 2018 · Flood · Flooding
- DR-1996 2011 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms And Flooding
- EM-3253 2005 · Hurricane · Hurricane Katrina Evacuation
- FM-2326 2000 · Fire · Mt - Willie Fire
Not counted above: 31 statewide declarations, which covered every county in Montana. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.
Storms recorded by NOAA, by type
| Event type | Records | Deaths | Injuries | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Storm | 341 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Hail | 103 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heavy Snow | 99 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| High Wind | 69 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 32 | 0 | 0 | $3K |
| Flash Flood | 12 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heavy Rain | 12 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Avalanche | 10 | 10 | 1 | $0 |
| Wildfire | 10 | 1 | 1 | $525K |
| Flood | 9 | 1 | 0 | $1.6M |
| Drought | 6 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Winter Weather | 5 | 1 | 2 | $0 |
| Blizzard | 3 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Funnel Cloud | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Lightning | 1 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
| Tornado | 1 | 0 | 0 | $12K |
Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone. A storm filed against a forecast zone is counted in every county that zone covers, with the whole storm's damage; do not add these figures across counties.
Year by year
NOAA storm event records in Carbon County each year. The busiest year was 2025, with 47 records.
Show the numbers for every year
| Year | Records | Deaths | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 4 | 0 | $0 |
| 1997 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
| 1998 | 4 | 0 | $526K |
| 1999 | 7 | 0 | $0 |
| 2000 | 3 | 0 | $0 |
| 2001 | 19 | 0 | $0 |
| 2002 | 9 | 0 | $0 |
| 2003 | 31 | 0 | $0 |
| 2004 | 13 | 0 | $0 |
| 2005 | 35 | 0 | $0 |
| 2006 | 18 | 0 | $0 |
| 2007 | 13 | 0 | $0 |
| 2008 | 30 | 0 | $0 |
| 2009 | 27 | 0 | $0 |
| 2010 | 26 | 1 | $14K |
| 2011 | 31 | 3 | $1.6M |
| 2012 | 19 | 1 | $0 |
| 2013 | 25 | 0 | $0 |
| 2014 | 32 | 2 | $0 |
| 2015 | 24 | 1 | $0 |
| 2016 | 16 | 1 | $0 |
| 2017 | 22 | 0 | $0 |
| 2018 | 29 | 0 | $0 |
| 2019 | 29 | 0 | $0 |
| 2020 | 35 | 0 | $0 |
| 2021 | 46 | 2 | $0 |
| 2022 | 31 | 2 | $0 |
| 2023 | 37 | 1 | $0 |
| 2024 | 27 | 0 | $0 |
| 2025 | 47 | 0 | $0 |
| 2026 | 24 | 0 | $0 |
Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.
Notable events
Costliest records
- Flood · May 20, 2011$1.0MNOAA name: Carbon County · 1 death · NOAA record 308650
- Flood · Jul 1, 2011$600KNOAA name: Carbon County · NOAA record 342245
- Wildfire · Jul 17, 1998$525KNOAA name: Carbon County · NOAA record 5658270
- Tornado · Jun 16, 2010$12KNOAA name: Carbon County · NOAA record 234169
- Thunderstorm Wind · Jun 16, 2010$2KNOAA name: Carbon County · NOAA record 234659
Deadliest records
- Avalanche · Jan 3, 20101 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 212908
- Flood · May 20, 20111 deathNOAA name: Carbon County · $1.0M damage · NOAA record 308650
- Lightning · Jun 11, 20111 deathNOAA name: Carbon County · NOAA record 332755
- Avalanche · Dec 31, 20111 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 354739
- Avalanche · Feb 22, 20121 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 358926
Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.
Flood insurance claims (NFIP)
The National Flood Insurance Program paid $2.7M on 60 claims in Carbon County from 1978 to 2022.
| Year | Claims | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | $2.4M |
| 2011 | 13 | $99K |
| 1997 | 6 | $68K |
| 2007 | 3 | $36K |
| 2008 | 2 | $13K |
A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.
Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in Carbon County
A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.
| Hazard | Prob. | Basis, from the county record |
|---|---|---|
| Severe Thunderstorm | 3 | 136 NCEI events over 31 years (4.39/yr). 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Flood, External | 3 | 33 NCEI events over 31 years (1.06/yr). 4 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm | 3 | 448 NCEI events over 31 years (14.45/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Wild Fire | 3 | 10 NCEI events over 31 years (0.32/yr). 3 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| High Wind (non-convective) | 3 | 69 NCEI events over 31 years (2.23/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Hurricane / Tropical Storm | 2 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Drought | 2 | 6 NCEI events over 31 years (0.19/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Landslide | 2 | 10 NCEI events over 31 years (0.32/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Epidemic | 2 | 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Tornado | 1 | 1 NCEI event over 31 years (0.03/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Temperature Extremes | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Earthquake | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Tidal Wave / Tsunami | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Volcano | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Dam Inundation | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in Carbon County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.
How this page was made
- Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
- NOAA files some events against a county and others against an NWS forecast zone, and publishes a code for both. Records are counted as Carbon County by that code — county records by the county's own FIPS code, zone records through the National Weather Service's published list of which counties each zone covers. No name matching is involved. Of 714 records, 171 were filed against this county and 543 against a forecast zone covering it. A zone storm is counted in every county its zone covers, and its damage figure is the whole storm's, not this county's share — NOAA does not publish that split. So these figures describe this county; they must not be added up across counties. Left out: 21% of Montana's NOAA records, which are marine zones or zones NWS does not map to a county.
- Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.
- This county's NOAA record is short (under 100 records, under 10 with damage, or under 10 years), so this page is not offered to search engines. It is still accurate.
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Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.