Polk County, Arkansas: hazard history
What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.
At a glance
What this means
- The event NOAA recorded most often here is Hail, with 164 records.
- The costliest single record is Tornado in 2009: $130.0M in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
- The deadliest record is Tornado in 2009, with 3 deaths.
- FEMA has declared 24 disasters that named this county, most often for severe storm.
- The worst year for flood insurance claims was 2013, with 8 claims.
What this can't tell you
- What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
- Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
- Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
- A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
- Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.
Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)
FEMA declared 24 disasters that named Polk County between 1968 and 2026.
| Incident type | Disasters | Most recent |
|---|---|---|
| Severe Storm | 8 | 2025 |
| Severe Ice Storm | 4 | 2013 |
| Flood | 3 | 1991 |
| Tornado | 3 | 2009 |
| Biological | 2 | 2020 |
| Hurricane | 2 | 2020 |
| Drought | 1 | 1976 |
| Winter Storm | 1 | 2026 |
Most recent declarations
- EM-3636 2026 · Winter Storm · Severe Winter Storm
- EM-3627 2025 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding
- EM-3541 2020 · Hurricane · Hurricane Laura
- EM-3461 2020 · Biological · Covid-19
- DR-4518 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
- DR-4254 2015 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds, And Flooding
- DR-4226 2015 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds, And Flooding
- DR-4160 2013 · Severe Ice Storm · Severe Winter Storm
- DR-4124 2013 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding
- DR-1975 2011 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Associated Flooding
Not counted above: 6 statewide declarations, which covered every county in Arkansas. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.
Storms recorded by NOAA, by type
| Event type | Records | Deaths | Injuries | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail | 164 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 159 | 0 | 2 | $945K |
| Flash Flood | 64 | 0 | 0 | $3.7M |
| Winter Weather | 52 | 0 | 0 | $65K |
| Tornado | 25 | 3 | 35 | $131.4M |
| Winter Storm | 24 | 0 | 0 | $2.5M |
| Drought | 23 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heavy Rain | 13 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heat | 9 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heavy Snow | 8 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Lightning | 8 | 0 | 2 | $212K |
| Wildfire | 8 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Frost/Freeze | 7 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Strong Wind | 7 | 0 | 0 | $360K |
| Funnel Cloud | 5 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Ice Storm | 5 | 0 | 0 | $5.0M |
| Tropical Depression | 3 | 0 | 0 | $750K |
| Flood | 2 | 0 | 0 | $650K |
| Tropical Storm | 2 | 0 | 0 | $375K |
Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone.
Year by year
NOAA storm event records in Polk County each year. The busiest year was 2011, with 56 records.
Show the numbers for every year
| Year | Records | Deaths | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 17 | 0 | $0 |
| 1997 | 9 | 0 | $0 |
| 1998 | 29 | 0 | $100K |
| 1999 | 24 | 0 | $0 |
| 2000 | 14 | 0 | $0 |
| 2001 | 22 | 0 | $300K |
| 2002 | 7 | 0 | $0 |
| 2003 | 14 | 0 | $0 |
| 2004 | 22 | 0 | $0 |
| 2005 | 14 | 0 | $0 |
| 2006 | 25 | 0 | $0 |
| 2007 | 18 | 0 | $9K |
| 2008 | 34 | 0 | $1.1M |
| 2009 | 24 | 3 | $135.6M |
| 2010 | 20 | 0 | $48K |
| 2011 | 56 | 0 | $1.9M |
| 2012 | 29 | 0 | $1.6M |
| 2013 | 31 | 0 | $3.8M |
| 2014 | 30 | 0 | $1.4M |
| 2015 | 19 | 0 | $200K |
| 2016 | 17 | 0 | $13K |
| 2017 | 4 | 0 | $20K |
| 2018 | 13 | 0 | $2K |
| 2019 | 15 | 0 | $0 |
| 2020 | 32 | 0 | $10K |
| 2021 | 7 | 0 | $0 |
| 2022 | 16 | 0 | $10K |
| 2023 | 9 | 0 | $0 |
| 2024 | 5 | 0 | $0 |
| 2025 | 11 | 0 | $0 |
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.
Notable events
Costliest records
- Tornado · Apr 9, 2009$130.0MNOAA name: POLK · 3 deaths · 30 injuries · NOAA record 154302
- Ice Storm · Jan 26, 2009$5.0MNOAA name: POLK · NOAA record 143451
- Flash Flood · May 30, 2013$1.8MNOAA name: POLK · NOAA record 445908
- Winter Storm · Dec 5, 2013$1.5MNOAA name: POLK · NOAA record 480105
- Winter Storm · Dec 25, 2012$1.0MNOAA name: POLK · NOAA record 419030
Deadliest records
- Tornado · Apr 9, 20093 deathsNOAA name: POLK · $130.0M damage · 30 injuries · NOAA record 154302
Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.
Flood insurance claims (NFIP)
The National Flood Insurance Program paid $202K on 24 claims in Polk County from 1990 to 2023.
| Year | Claims | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 8 | $86K |
| 2015 | 3 | $21K |
| 2014 | 3 | $29K |
| 2020 | 2 | $7K |
| 2008 | 2 | $20K |
A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.
Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in Polk County
A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.
| Hazard | Prob. | Basis, from the county record |
|---|---|---|
| Tornado | 3 | 25 NCEI events over 31 years (0.81/yr). 3 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Severe Thunderstorm | 3 | 331 NCEI events over 31 years (10.68/yr). 8 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Flood, External | 3 | 79 NCEI events over 31 years (2.55/yr). 3 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm | 3 | 89 NCEI events over 31 years (2.87/yr). 4 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Hurricane / Tropical Storm | 2 | 5 NCEI events over 31 years (0.16/yr). 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Temperature Extremes | 2 | 16 NCEI events over 31 years (0.52/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Drought | 2 | 23 NCEI events over 31 years (0.74/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Wild Fire | 2 | 8 NCEI events over 31 years (0.26/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| High Wind (non-convective) | 2 | 7 NCEI events over 31 years (0.23/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Epidemic | 2 | 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Earthquake | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Landslide | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Tidal Wave / Tsunami | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Volcano | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Dam Inundation | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in Polk County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.
How this page was made
- Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
- NOAA files some events by county and others by forecast zone, and names both. Records are counted as Polk County when their NOAA name is this county's name, alone or with a word like “Coastal” or “Inland” in front. The county codes NOAA also publishes have not been loaded for Arkansas yet; when they are, this page will count by code instead, and some counties' records will grow. NOAA names counted here: POLK, POLK COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS. Zones named for something else, such as a mountain range or two counties at once, are left out: 0% of Arkansas's NOAA records.
- Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.
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Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.