Baxter County, Arkansas: hazard history
What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.
At a glance
What this means
- The event NOAA recorded most often here is Thunderstorm Wind, with 224 records.
- The costliest single record is Ice Storm in 2009: $50.0M in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
- The deadliest record is Ice Storm in 1999, with 1 death.
- FEMA has declared 21 disasters that named this county, most often for severe storm.
- The worst year for flood insurance claims was 2008, with 66 claims.
What this can't tell you
- What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
- Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
- Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
- A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
- Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.
Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)
FEMA declared 21 disasters that named Baxter County between 1969 and 2026.
| Incident type | Disasters | Most recent |
|---|---|---|
| Severe Storm | 10 | 2025 |
| Severe Ice Storm | 3 | 2009 |
| Biological | 2 | 2020 |
| Flood | 2 | 1972 |
| Hurricane | 2 | 2020 |
| Drought | 1 | 1976 |
| Winter Storm | 1 | 2026 |
Most recent declarations
- EM-3636 2026 · Winter Storm · Severe Winter Storm
- EM-3627 2025 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding
- DR-4788 2024 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding
- EM-3541 2020 · Hurricane · Hurricane Laura
- DR-4518 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
- EM-3461 2020 · Biological · Covid-19
- DR-4318 2017 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds, And Flooding
- DR-1975 2011 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Associated Flooding
- DR-1819 2009 · Severe Storm · Severe Winter Storm
- EM-3301 2009 · Severe Ice Storm · Severe Winter Storm
Not counted above: 6 statewide declarations, which covered every county in Arkansas. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.
Storms recorded by NOAA, by type
| Event type | Records | Deaths | Injuries | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 224 | 1 | 7 | $1.5M |
| Hail | 175 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Winter Weather | 61 | 0 | 0 | $210K |
| Flash Flood | 32 | 0 | 0 | $3.2M |
| Winter Storm | 30 | 0 | 2 | $3.7M |
| Heavy Snow | 16 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Drought | 15 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Tornado | 15 | 2 | 52 | $15.9M |
| Heavy Rain | 14 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Strong Wind | 8 | 1 | 1 | $102K |
| Heat | 7 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Lightning | 7 | 0 | 2 | $65K |
| Flood | 6 | 0 | 1 | $5.3M |
| Frost/Freeze | 6 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Wildfire | 5 | 0 | 0 | $60K |
| Ice Storm | 4 | 1 | 0 | $50.0M |
| Funnel Cloud | 2 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Tropical Depression | 2 | 0 | 0 | $500K |
| Tropical Storm | 2 | 0 | 0 | $750K |
| Cold/Wind Chill | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| High Wind | 1 | 0 | 0 | $250K |
Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone. A storm filed against a forecast zone is counted in every county that zone covers, with the whole storm's damage; do not add these figures across counties.
Year by year
NOAA storm event records in Baxter County each year. The busiest year was 2006, with 44 records.
Show the numbers for every year
| Year | Records | Deaths | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 21 | 0 | $0 |
| 1997 | 11 | 0 | $75K |
| 1998 | 18 | 0 | $0 |
| 1999 | 12 | 1 | $0 |
| 2000 | 28 | 0 | $0 |
| 2001 | 14 | 0 | $0 |
| 2002 | 20 | 0 | $110K |
| 2003 | 37 | 0 | $0 |
| 2004 | 15 | 0 | $0 |
| 2005 | 18 | 0 | $0 |
| 2006 | 44 | 0 | $0 |
| 2007 | 16 | 1 | $72K |
| 2008 | 27 | 1 | $24.1M |
| 2009 | 24 | 0 | $50.3M |
| 2010 | 35 | 0 | $212K |
| 2011 | 39 | 0 | $1.3M |
| 2012 | 28 | 0 | $814K |
| 2013 | 23 | 0 | $3.6M |
| 2014 | 31 | 0 | $315K |
| 2015 | 12 | 0 | $100K |
| 2016 | 17 | 0 | $0 |
| 2017 | 23 | 1 | $12K |
| 2018 | 11 | 0 | $65K |
| 2019 | 10 | 0 | $0 |
| 2020 | 26 | 0 | $275K |
| 2021 | 12 | 0 | $0 |
| 2022 | 17 | 0 | $10K |
| 2023 | 15 | 0 | $120K |
| 2024 | 18 | 1 | $0 |
| 2025 | 6 | 0 | $0 |
| 2026 | 5 | 0 | $0 |
Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.
Notable events
Costliest records
- Ice Storm · Jan 26, 2009$50.0MNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 143433
- Tornado · Feb 5, 2008$15.8MNOAA name: Baxter County · 1 death · 35 injuries · NOAA record 82508
- Flood · Mar 18, 2008$4.0MNOAA name: Baxter County · NOAA record 89525
- Winter Storm · Dec 5, 2013$3.5MNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 480083
- Flash Flood · Mar 18, 2008$1.5MNOAA name: Baxter County · NOAA record 89526
Deadliest records
- Ice Storm · Jan 1, 19991 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5685721
- Strong Wind · Apr 11, 20071 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · 1 injury · NOAA record 14863
- Tornado · Feb 5, 20081 deathNOAA name: Baxter County · $15.8M damage · 35 injuries · NOAA record 82508
- Thunderstorm Wind · Jun 23, 20171 deathNOAA name: Baxter County · NOAA record 707674
- Tornado · May 26, 20241 deathNOAA name: Baxter County · 17 injuries · NOAA record 1181781
Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.
Flood insurance claims (NFIP)
The National Flood Insurance Program paid $2.9M on 116 claims in Baxter County from 1979 to 2023.
| Year | Claims | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 66 | $2.3M |
| 1985 | 17 | $35K |
| 2017 | 7 | $88K |
| 2004 | 5 | $32K |
| 2015 | 4 | $337K |
A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.
Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in Baxter County
A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.
| Hazard | Prob. | Basis, from the county record |
|---|---|---|
| Severe Thunderstorm | 3 | 406 NCEI events over 31 years (13.10/yr). 10 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Flood, External | 3 | 52 NCEI events over 31 years (1.68/yr). 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm | 3 | 111 NCEI events over 31 years (3.58/yr). 3 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Hurricane / Tropical Storm | 2 | 4 NCEI events over 31 years (0.13/yr). 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Tornado | 2 | 15 NCEI events over 31 years (0.48/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Temperature Extremes | 2 | 14 NCEI events over 31 years (0.45/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Drought | 2 | 15 NCEI events over 31 years (0.48/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Wild Fire | 2 | 5 NCEI events over 31 years (0.16/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| High Wind (non-convective) | 2 | 9 NCEI events over 31 years (0.29/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Epidemic | 2 | 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Earthquake | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Landslide | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Tidal Wave / Tsunami | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Volcano | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Dam Inundation | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in Baxter County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.
How this page was made
- Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
- NOAA files some events against a county and others against an NWS forecast zone, and publishes a code for both. Records are counted as Baxter County by that code — county records by the county's own FIPS code, zone records through the National Weather Service's published list of which counties each zone covers. No name matching is involved. Of 633 records, 475 were filed against this county and 158 against a forecast zone covering it. A zone storm is counted in every county its zone covers, and its damage figure is the whole storm's, not this county's share — NOAA does not publish that split. So these figures describe this county; they must not be added up across counties. Left out: 5% of Arkansas's NOAA records, which are marine zones or zones NWS does not map to a county.
- Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.
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Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.