⚠severe weatheractive

ENHANCED RISK — Day 1 Convective Outlook

6.0

34.6258°N, 111.4892°W

Started just now

NOAA SPC data as of 07:45 UTC

Event Details

Typesevere weather

Severity6.0

Statusactive

Location34.6258°N, 111.4892°W

Started2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00

Last Updated2026-10-21T07:45:08.598+00:00

Sourcenoaa_spc

Source URLwww.spc.noaa.gov

Confidence1.00

Impact Zones — modeled

Severe Impact Zone

Significant severe weather likely. Seek sturdy shelter immediately.

NWS polygon

Moderate Impact Zone

Severe weather possible. Monitor conditions and be ready to shelter.

20.0 km

Affected Zone

Thunderstorms and isolated severe weather possible. Stay weather-aware.

40.0 km

Zone estimates are based on scientific models and may differ from actual local conditions.

Impact Analysis

Population Exposed44,359

Structures in Zone3,667

Schools18

Fire Stations18

Note: Zone 1 uses NWS polygon geometry. Exposure for this zone is pending polygon-based computation — totals reflect outer zones only.

Population from ACS 5-Year 2022 tract sampling; structure counts from Microsoft Building Footprints or Census ACS housing data, capped by USGS NLCD 2021 developed land. Estimates for situational awareness — not for actuarial, regulatory, or underwriting use.

Historical Comparison

2015 YAVAPAI County, ARIZONA Thunderstorm Wind70% match

Thunderstorm Wind in ARIZONA, 24km from current event, $1M in recorded damage

YAVAPAI County, ARIZONADamage: $1.0M

2019 GILA County, ARIZONA Thunderstorm Wind62% match

Thunderstorm Wind in ARIZONA, 45km from current event, $100K in recorded damage

GILA County, ARIZONADamage: $100K

2022 YAVAPAI County, ARIZONA Thunderstorm Wind61% match

Thunderstorm Wind in ARIZONA, 33km from current event, $5K in recorded damage

YAVAPAI County, ARIZONADamage: $5K

Historical comparison based on peril type, geography, and severity. Past events do not predict future outcomes.

View on Live Map

Coconino County, AZ disaster history All US hazard profiles Scoring methodology

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Zone estimates are based on scientific models and may differ from actual local conditions.