Coconino County, Arizona: hazard history
What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.
At a glance
What this means
- The event NOAA recorded most often here is Heavy Snow, with 413 records.
- The costliest single record is Wildfire in 2018: $50.0M in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
- The deadliest record is Flash Flood in 1997, with 11 deaths.
- FEMA has declared 24 disasters that named this county, most often for fire.
- The worst year for flood insurance claims was 1993, with 41 claims.
What this can't tell you
- What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
- Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
- Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
- A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
- Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.
Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)
FEMA declared 24 disasters that named Coconino County between 1970 and 2022.
| Incident type | Disasters | Most recent |
|---|---|---|
| Fire | 11 | 2022 |
| Flood | 5 | 2021 |
| Severe Storm | 4 | 2010 |
| Biological | 2 | 2020 |
| Drought | 1 | 1977 |
| Hurricane | 1 | 2005 |
Most recent declarations
- FM-5441 2022 · Fire · Pipeline Fire
- FM-5434 2022 · Fire · Tunnel 2 Fire
- DR-4620 2021 · Flood · Severe Storms And Flooding
- EM-3442 2020 · Biological · Covid-19
- DR-4524 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
- FM-5284 2019 · Fire · Museum Fire
- FM-5236 2018 · Fire · Tinder Fire
- FM-5083 2014 · Fire · Slide Fire
- DR-1940 2010 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms And Flooding
- FM-2846 2010 · Fire · Shultz Fire
Not counted above: 33 statewide declarations, which covered every county in Arizona. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.
Storms recorded by NOAA, by type
| Event type | Records | Deaths | Injuries | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Snow | 413 | 3 | 45 | $0 |
| High Wind | 333 | 0 | 17 | $148K |
| Flash Flood | 278 | 24 | 15 | $32.0M |
| Hail | 150 | 0 | 6 | $242K |
| Heavy Rain | 108 | 0 | 0 | $10K |
| Winter Storm | 102 | 8 | 10 | $1.0M |
| Wildfire | 78 | 0 | 0 | $98.5M |
| Flood | 55 | 0 | 1 | $187K |
| Dust Storm | 41 | 0 | 3 | $60K |
| Funnel Cloud | 35 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Tornado | 35 | 0 | 7 | $2.0M |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 29 | 0 | 0 | $136K |
| Winter Weather | 20 | 8 | 55 | $590K |
| Lightning | 19 | 7 | 45 | $600K |
| Excessive Heat | 15 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Cold/Wind Chill | 12 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
| Avalanche | 8 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | 8 | 2 | 0 | $1.0M |
| Drought | 7 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Debris Flow | 6 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Dense Fog | 5 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Ice Storm | 4 | 5 | 0 | $100K |
| Strong Wind | 3 | 0 | 0 | $28K |
| Dust Devil | 2 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Blizzard | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heat | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Waterspout | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone. A storm filed against a forecast zone is counted in every county that zone covers, with the whole storm's damage; do not add these figures across counties.
Year by year
NOAA storm event records in Coconino County each year. The busiest year was 2022, with 104 records.
Show the numbers for every year
| Year | Records | Deaths | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 35 | 0 | $6K |
| 1997 | 52 | 15 | $320K |
| 1998 | 45 | 0 | $47K |
| 1999 | 32 | 0 | $2.5M |
| 2000 | 64 | 0 | $50K |
| 2001 | 42 | 5 | $0 |
| 2002 | 39 | 1 | $0 |
| 2003 | 42 | 0 | $0 |
| 2004 | 39 | 0 | $153K |
| 2005 | 37 | 0 | $10K |
| 2006 | 65 | 6 | $5K |
| 2007 | 37 | 1 | $0 |
| 2008 | 70 | 2 | $10.0M |
| 2009 | 73 | 0 | $3.1M |
| 2010 | 101 | 3 | $18.5M |
| 2011 | 76 | 4 | $2.0M |
| 2012 | 60 | 0 | $60K |
| 2013 | 88 | 2 | $150K |
| 2014 | 43 | 1 | $7.0M |
| 2015 | 52 | 3 | $0 |
| 2016 | 65 | 3 | $1K |
| 2017 | 60 | 0 | $20K |
| 2018 | 70 | 0 | $50.1M |
| 2019 | 57 | 0 | $9.0M |
| 2020 | 26 | 2 | $35K |
| 2021 | 89 | 4 | $350K |
| 2022 | 104 | 0 | $23.9M |
| 2023 | 92 | 0 | $8.2M |
| 2024 | 50 | 1 | $1.0M |
| 2025 | 49 | 5 | $0 |
| 2026 | 15 | 0 | $0 |
Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.
Notable events
Costliest records
- Wildfire · Apr 28, 2018$50.0MNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 744124
- Wildfire · Apr 17, 2022$20.0MNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 1018318
- Flash Flood · Aug 16, 2008$10.0MNOAA name: Coconino County · NOAA record 130025
- Wildfire · Jun 20, 2010$10.0MNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 238351
- Wildfire · Jul 21, 2019$9.0MNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 838601
Deadliest records
- Flash Flood · Aug 12, 199711 deathsNOAA name: Coconino County · 1 injury · NOAA record 5611379
- Winter Storm · Mar 13, 20255 deathsNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 1235065
- Flash Flood · Aug 11, 20013 deathsNOAA name: Coconino County · NOAA record 5266978
- Ice Storm · Jan 25, 20063 deathsNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5486154
- Winter Storm · Jan 12, 19972 deathsNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5584769
Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.
Flood insurance claims (NFIP)
The National Flood Insurance Program paid $5.3M on 294 claims in Coconino County from 1978 to 2023.
| Year | Claims | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| 1993 | 41 | $445K |
| 2004 | 38 | $869K |
| 2022 | 36 | $818K |
| 2021 | 30 | $491K |
| 2009 | 18 | $496K |
A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.
Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in Coconino County
A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.
| Hazard | Prob. | Basis, from the county record |
|---|---|---|
| Tornado | 3 | 35 NCEI events over 31 years (1.13/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Severe Thunderstorm | 3 | 198 NCEI events over 31 years (6.39/yr). 4 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Flood, External | 3 | 441 NCEI events over 31 years (14.23/yr). 5 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm | 3 | 540 NCEI events over 31 years (17.42/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Temperature Extremes | 3 | 36 NCEI events over 31 years (1.16/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Wild Fire | 3 | 78 NCEI events over 31 years (2.52/yr). 11 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| High Wind (non-convective) | 3 | 336 NCEI events over 31 years (10.84/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Hurricane / Tropical Storm | 2 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Drought | 2 | 7 NCEI events over 31 years (0.23/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Landslide | 2 | 14 NCEI events over 31 years (0.45/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Epidemic | 2 | 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Earthquake | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Tidal Wave / Tsunami | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Volcano | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Dam Inundation | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in Coconino County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.
How this page was made
- Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
- NOAA files some events against a county and others against an NWS forecast zone, and publishes a code for both. Records are counted as Coconino County by that code — county records by the county's own FIPS code, zone records through the National Weather Service's published list of which counties each zone covers. No name matching is involved. Of 1,769 records, 722 were filed against this county and 1,047 against a forecast zone covering it. A zone storm is counted in every county its zone covers, and its damage figure is the whole storm's, not this county's share — NOAA does not publish that split. So these figures describe this county; they must not be added up across counties. Left out: 6% of Arizona's NOAA records, which are marine zones or zones NWS does not map to a county.
- Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.
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Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.