Tornado Warnings, Measured: 24 of October's 26 Surveyed Tornadoes Touched Down Under a Warning

When a tornado touches down, was a tornado warning already out for that spot, and for how long? The National Weather Service surveys tornadoes after the fact and publishes each path, rating and start time in its Damage Assessment Toolkit. Calchis records every tornado and severe thunderstorm warning as it is issued, with its polygon and expiry. Put the two together and the question has an answer for each tornado.

For October 2026, as of October 21, the surveys list 26 tornadoes.

	Tornadoes
Surveyed	26
Inside a tornado warning in effect at touchdown	24 (92%)
Median time from that warning to touchdown	8 minutes
Deaths · injuries	0 · 1

What stands out

Almost all of them came in three days. Twenty-four of the 26 touched down between October 9 and 11, across the Florida Panhandle, Georgia and the Carolinas, as Hurricane Isaias approached, came ashore and moved inland; one survey names the storm. Every one of those 24 was under a tornado warning when it touched down.

The stronger the tornado, the more warning. The five rated EF2 touched down a median 14 minutes after their warning went out; the thirteen EF1s, 8.5 minutes; the eight EF0s, 5. The Barnwell, South Carolina, EF2, on an 18-mile path, came 19 minutes after its warning; the Duplin County, North Carolina, EF2, the longest at 24 miles, 14 minutes after.

Some margins were a minute. Three touched down a minute after their warning was issued. That still counts as warned here, and it is the honest description of what a minute is.

The two that were not were in West Texas. On October 14, two short-lived tornadoes surveyed by the Midland/Odessa office touched down seven minutes apart. The first was under no warning; the second was under a severe thunderstorm warning. A tornado warning covering each point followed 14 and 7 minutes after touchdown.

What this measure cannot tell you

It is not the Weather Service's own verification, which scores warnings against its Storm Data records with rules of its own. This is one test, stated so anyone can repeat it.

Only the touchdown point is tested. A tornado whose path left the warning polygon later still counts as warned.

Touchdown times are the surveyors'. Some are estimated from radar, as the surveys say. Surveys for recent events are still being added, so October's totals can grow.

Warnings are as issued. A warning shortened later by a follow-up statement is counted to its original expiry.

An earlier warning counts. The time is from the earliest tornado warning in effect at touchdown, not the nearest one. Matching each survey to its nearest warning instead would have shown the Duplin County tornado touching down five minutes before a warning, when an earlier one had covered the spot for fourteen.

The full list

Every tornado, with its touchdown time, rating, path length and the warning it fell under, is in the October 2026 tornado field report, which is rebuilt every hour as surveys arrive.

Sources: NOAA National Weather Service Damage Assessment Toolkit (tornado surveys); NWS alerts via api.weather.gov (tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings), as Calchis recorded them. Queried October 21, 2026. A tornado counts as warned when the first point of its surveyed path lies inside a tornado warning issued at or before the touchdown time and expiring after it.