San Juan County, Utah: hazard history
What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.
At a glance
What this means
- The event NOAA recorded most often here is Drought, with 471 records.
- The costliest single record is Wildfire in 2021: $1.5M in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
- The deadliest record is Flash Flood in 1996, with 1 death.
- FEMA has declared 6 disasters that named this county, most often for biological.
What this can't tell you
- What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
- Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
- Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
- A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
- Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.
Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)
FEMA declared 6 disasters that named San Juan County between 1977 and 2025.
| Incident type | Disasters | Most recent |
|---|---|---|
| Biological | 2 | 2020 |
| Fire | 2 | 2025 |
| Coastal Storm | 1 | 2005 |
| Drought | 1 | 1977 |
Most recent declarations
- FM-5598 2025 · Fire · Deer Creek Fire
- FM-5391 2021 · Fire · Pack Creek Fire
- EM-3478 2020 · Biological · Covid-19
- DR-4525 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
- EM-3223 2005 · Coastal Storm · Hurricane Katrina Evacuation
- EM-3024 1977 · Drought · Drought
Not counted above: 5 statewide declarations, which covered every county in Utah. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.
Storms recorded by NOAA, by type
| Event type | Records | Deaths | Injuries | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | 471 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Winter Weather | 285 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Winter Storm | 137 | 0 | 0 | $20K |
| Frost/Freeze | 82 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heavy Snow | 71 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Flash Flood | 59 | 1 | 1 | $1.7M |
| Wildfire | 34 | 0 | 0 | $1.5M |
| Dense Fog | 31 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heavy Rain | 31 | 0 | 0 | $40K |
| Hail | 30 | 0 | 0 | $60K |
| Debris Flow | 29 | 0 | 0 | $67K |
| High Wind | 19 | 0 | 0 | $22K |
| Thunderstorm Wind | 19 | 0 | 0 | $210K |
| Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | 11 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Flood | 10 | 0 | 0 | $14K |
| Funnel Cloud | 10 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Tornado | 7 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Blizzard | 5 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Avalanche | 4 | 2 | 0 | $0 |
| Cold/Wind Chill | 4 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Excessive Heat | 4 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
| Strong Wind | 3 | 0 | 0 | $14K |
| Heat | 2 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Lightning | 2 | 0 | 0 | $101K |
| Dust Storm | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone. A storm filed against a forecast zone is counted in every county that zone covers, with the whole storm's damage; do not add these figures across counties.
Year by year
NOAA storm event records in San Juan County each year. The busiest year was 2013, with 87 records.
Show the numbers for every year
| Year | Records | Deaths | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 4 | 1 | $50K |
| 1997 | 3 | 0 | $0 |
| 1998 | 9 | 0 | $20K |
| 1999 | 4 | 0 | $0 |
| 2000 | 17 | 0 | $20K |
| 2001 | 22 | 0 | $33K |
| 2002 | 50 | 0 | $452K |
| 2003 | 64 | 0 | $1.0M |
| 2004 | 69 | 0 | $0 |
| 2005 | 72 | 0 | $12K |
| 2006 | 69 | 0 | $190K |
| 2007 | 62 | 0 | $1K |
| 2008 | 47 | 0 | $0 |
| 2009 | 47 | 0 | $130K |
| 2010 | 63 | 0 | $500 |
| 2011 | 39 | 0 | $0 |
| 2012 | 63 | 1 | $5K |
| 2013 | 87 | 0 | $150K |
| 2014 | 36 | 0 | $0 |
| 2015 | 55 | 0 | $50K |
| 2016 | 33 | 0 | $0 |
| 2017 | 18 | 0 | $0 |
| 2018 | 58 | 0 | $0 |
| 2019 | 41 | 1 | $0 |
| 2020 | 41 | 0 | $0 |
| 2021 | 78 | 0 | $1.6M |
| 2022 | 68 | 1 | $20K |
| 2023 | 35 | 0 | $12K |
| 2024 | 38 | 0 | $0 |
| 2025 | 48 | 0 | $50K |
| 2026 | 21 | 0 | $0 |
Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.
Notable events
Costliest records
- Wildfire · Jul 1, 2021$1.5MNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 958534
- Flash Flood · Sep 9, 2003$1.0MNOAA name: San Juan County · NOAA record 5337148
- Flash Flood · Aug 29, 2002$300KNOAA name: San Juan County · 1 injury · NOAA record 5317871
- Thunderstorm Wind · Jun 7, 2006$175KNOAA name: San Juan County · NOAA record 5514763
- Lightning · Jun 26, 2009$100KNOAA name: San Juan County · NOAA record 180853
Deadliest records
- Flash Flood · Sep 14, 19961 deathNOAA name: San Juan County · NOAA record 5570141
- Avalanche · Mar 3, 20121 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 437380
- Avalanche · Jan 25, 20191 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 794267
- Excessive Heat · Jul 17, 20221 deathNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 1033449
Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.
Flood insurance claims (NFIP)
No National Flood Insurance Program claims are on record for San Juan County.
A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.
Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in San Juan County
A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.
| Hazard | Prob. | Basis, from the county record |
|---|---|---|
| Severe Thunderstorm | 3 | 51 NCEI events over 31 years (1.65/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Flood, External | 3 | 100 NCEI events over 31 years (3.23/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm | 3 | 498 NCEI events over 31 years (16.06/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Temperature Extremes | 3 | 103 NCEI events over 31 years (3.32/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Drought | 3 | 471 NCEI events over 31 years (15.19/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Wild Fire | 3 | 34 NCEI events over 31 years (1.10/yr). 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Landslide | 3 | 33 NCEI events over 31 years (1.06/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Hurricane / Tropical Storm | 2 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Tornado | 2 | 7 NCEI events over 31 years (0.23/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| High Wind (non-convective) | 2 | 22 NCEI events over 31 years (0.71/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Epidemic | 2 | 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Earthquake | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Tidal Wave / Tsunami | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Volcano | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Dam Inundation | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in San Juan County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.
How this page was made
- Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
- NOAA files some events against a county and others against an NWS forecast zone, and publishes a code for both. Records are counted as San Juan County by that code — county records by the county's own FIPS code, zone records through the National Weather Service's published list of which counties each zone covers. No name matching is involved. Of 1,361 records, 212 were filed against this county and 1,149 against a forecast zone covering it. A zone storm is counted in every county its zone covers, and its damage figure is the whole storm's, not this county's share — NOAA does not publish that split. So these figures describe this county; they must not be added up across counties. Left out: 32% of Utah's NOAA records, which are marine zones or zones NWS does not map to a county.
- Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.
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Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.