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Warren County, New Jersey: hazard history

What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.

At a glance

Storm events recorded by NOAA
1,055
1996 to 2026
People killed and injured in those events
4 / 23
Deaths (direct and indirect) / injuries (direct)
Property damage NOAA recorded
$89.5M
Nominal dollars, not adjusted for inflation
FEMA disaster declarations naming this county
27
1965 to 2023
NFIP flood insurance claims
1,268
1978 to 2024; a count, not a rate
NFIP payments on those claims
$31.6M
Nominal dollars

What this means

  • The event NOAA recorded most often here is Thunderstorm Wind, with 271 records.
  • The costliest single record is Flood in 2004: $28.0M in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
  • The deadliest record is High Wind in 2003, with 1 death.
  • FEMA has declared 27 disasters that named this county, most often for hurricane.
  • The worst year for flood insurance claims was 2005, with 273 claims.

What this can't tell you

  • What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
  • Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
  • Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
  • A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
  • Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.

Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)

FEMA declared 27 disasters that named Warren County between 1965 and 2023.

FEMA disaster declarations naming Warren County, by incident type
Incident typeDisastersMost recent
Hurricane82021
Severe Storm82023
Snowstorm42021
Biological22020
Drought21980
Fire12001
Flood11971
Other12000

Most recent declarations

  • DR-4725 2023 · Severe Storm · Severe Storm And Flooding
  • DR-4614 2021 · Hurricane · Remnants Of Hurricane Ida
  • EM-3573 2021 · Hurricane · Remnants Of Hurricane Ida
  • DR-4597 2021 · Snowstorm · Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm
  • DR-4488 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
  • EM-3451 2020 · Biological · Covid-19
  • DR-4264 2016 · Severe Storm · Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm
  • DR-4086 2012 · Hurricane · Hurricane Sandy
  • EM-3354 2012 · Hurricane · Hurricane Sandy
  • DR-4048 2011 · Severe Storm · Severe Storm

Not counted above: 2 statewide declarations, which covered every county in New Jersey. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.

Storms recorded by NOAA, by type

NOAA storm event records for Warren County, 1996 to 2026, by event type
Event typeRecordsDeathsInjuriesProperty damage
Thunderstorm Wind27105$565K
Winter Weather21100$0
Strong Wind9002$967K
Winter Storm6410$75K
Flash Flood5601$7.2M
Heavy Rain4900$0
Heat4500$0
Drought3600$0
Heavy Snow3600$2.0M
Dense Fog3500$0
High Wind3311$10.2M
Cold/Wind Chill3100$0
Hail2700$0
Flood2200$67.2M
Lightning13014$21K
Excessive Heat1110$0
Wildfire700$0
Sleet500$0
Ice Storm300$0
Blizzard200$1.1M
Extreme Cold/Wind Chill210$0
Frost/Freeze200$0
Tropical Storm200$250K
Freezing Fog100$0
Tornado100$0

Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone. A storm filed against a forecast zone is counted in every county that zone covers, with the whole storm's damage; do not add these figures across counties.

Year by year

NOAA storm event records in Warren County each year. The busiest year was 2019, with 73 records.

Show the numbers for every year
NOAA storm event records in Warren County by year
YearRecordsDeathsProperty damage
1996250$4.6M
1997350$0
1998340$0
1999420$7.0M
2000350$600K
2001340$0
2002490$0
2003381$1.2M
2004290$28.0M
2005430$3.5M
2006320$15.3M
2007542$2.0M
2008401$550K
2009350$31K
2010280$12K
2011440$16.6M
2012310$10.0M
2013350$30K
2014400$2K
2015340$41K
2016210$0
2017210$10
2018230$0
2019730$0
2020210$0
2021410$0
2022210$0
2023320$0
2024360$0
2025220$0
202670$0

Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.

Notable events

Costliest records

  1. Flood · Sep 18, 2004$28.0M
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5426512
  2. Flood · Jun 27, 2006$15.0M
    NOAA name: Warren County · NOAA record 5518469
  3. Flood · Aug 28, 2011$12.5M
    NOAA name: Warren County · NOAA record 344864
  4. High Wind · Oct 29, 2012$10.0M
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 417000
  5. Flash Flood · Sep 16, 1999$7.0M
    NOAA name: Warren County · NOAA record 5722768

Deadliest records

  1. High Wind · Sep 18, 20031 death
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · $100K damage · NOAA record 5336736
  2. Extreme Cold/Wind Chill · Feb 6, 20071 death
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 16678
  3. Winter Storm · Mar 16, 20071 death
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 21386
  4. Excessive Heat · Jun 7, 20081 death
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 114290

Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.

Flood insurance claims (NFIP)

The National Flood Insurance Program paid $31.6M on 1,268 claims in Warren County from 1978 to 2024.

Years with the most NFIP claims in Warren County
YearClaimsPaid
2005273$10.5M
2006244$9.3M
2004221$5.9M
2011163$2.1M
1996122$1.8M

A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.

Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in Warren County

A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.

HazardProb.Basis, from the county record
Hurricane / Tropical Storm32 NCEI events over 31 years (0.06/yr). 8 federal disaster declarations naming the county.
Severe Thunderstorm3311 NCEI events over 31 years (10.03/yr). 8 federal disaster declarations naming the county.
Flood, External3127 NCEI events over 31 years (4.10/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county.
Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm3322 NCEI events over 31 years (10.39/yr). 4 federal disaster declarations naming the county.
Temperature Extremes391 NCEI events over 31 years (2.94/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Drought336 NCEI events over 31 years (1.16/yr). 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county.
High Wind (non-convective)3123 NCEI events over 31 years (3.97/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Wild Fire27 NCEI events over 31 years (0.23/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county.
Epidemic22 federal disaster declarations naming the county.
Tornado11 NCEI event over 31 years (0.03/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Earthquake1No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Landslide1No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Tidal Wave / Tsunami1No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Volcano1No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Dam Inundation1No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.

A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in Warren County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.

How this page was made

  • Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
  • NOAA files some events against a county and others against an NWS forecast zone, and publishes a code for both. Records are counted as Warren County by that code — county records by the county's own FIPS code, zone records through the National Weather Service's published list of which counties each zone covers. No name matching is involved. Of 1,055 records, 425 were filed against this county and 630 against a forecast zone covering it. A zone storm is counted in every county its zone covers, and its damage figure is the whole storm's, not this county's share — NOAA does not publish that split. So these figures describe this county; they must not be added up across counties. Left out: 1% of New Jersey's NOAA records, which are marine zones or zones NWS does not map to a county.
  • Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.

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Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.