Arenac County, Michigan: hazard history
What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.
At a glance
What this means
- The event NOAA recorded most often here is Thunderstorm Wind, with 41 records.
- The costliest single record is Flood in 2020: $4.4M in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
- FEMA has declared 11 disasters that named this county, most often for flood.
- The worst year for flood insurance claims was 2020, with 40 claims.
What this can't tell you
- What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
- Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
- Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
- A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
- Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.
Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)
FEMA declared 11 disasters that named Arenac County between 1972 and 2020.
| Incident type | Disasters | Most recent |
|---|---|---|
| Flood | 3 | 1986 |
| Biological | 2 | 2020 |
| Snowstorm | 2 | 1999 |
| Dam/Levee Break | 1 | 2020 |
| Drought | 1 | 1977 |
| Hurricane | 1 | 2005 |
| Severe Storm | 1 | 2004 |
Most recent declarations
- DR-4547 2020 · Dam/Levee Break · Severe Storms And Flooding
- EM-3455 2020 · Biological · Covid-19
- DR-4494 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
- EM-3225 2005 · Hurricane · Hurricane Katrina Evacuation
- DR-1527 2004 · Severe Storm · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding
- EM-3137 1999 · Snowstorm · Mi - Severe Weather 1/2 /99
- DR-774 1986 · Flood · Severe Storms & Flooding
- EM-3057 1978 · Snowstorm · Blizzards & Snowstorms
- EM-3035 1977 · Drought · Drought
- DR-371 1973 · Flood · Severe Storms & Flooding
Not counted above: 4 statewide declarations, which covered every county in Michigan. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.
Storms recorded by NOAA, by type
| Event type | Records | Deaths | Injuries | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunderstorm Wind | 41 | 0 | 4 | $441K |
| Hail | 40 | 0 | 0 | $10K |
| Winter Storm | 27 | 0 | 0 | $4K |
| Heavy Snow | 20 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Flood | 12 | 0 | 0 | $4.5M |
| Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | 5 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Tornado | 5 | 0 | 1 | $130K |
| Blizzard | 4 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Cold/Wind Chill | 4 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Strong Wind | 4 | 0 | 0 | $17K |
| High Wind | 3 | 0 | 0 | $5K |
| Ice Storm | 3 | 0 | 0 | $60K |
| Flash Flood | 2 | 0 | 0 | $22K |
| Excessive Heat | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Funnel Cloud | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Heat | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| Lightning | 1 | 0 | 0 | $500 |
Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone. A storm filed against a forecast zone is counted in every county that zone covers, with the whole storm's damage; do not add these figures across counties.
Year by year
NOAA storm event records in Arenac County each year. The busiest year was 1997, with 13 records.
Show the numbers for every year
| Year | Records | Deaths | Property damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 5 | 0 | $0 |
| 1997 | 13 | 0 | $0 |
| 1998 | 9 | 0 | $0 |
| 1999 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
| 2000 | 6 | 0 | $0 |
| 2001 | 5 | 0 | $0 |
| 2002 | 4 | 0 | $0 |
| 2003 | 1 | 0 | $0 |
| 2004 | 10 | 0 | $62K |
| 2005 | 9 | 0 | $17K |
| 2006 | 10 | 0 | $19K |
| 2007 | 11 | 0 | $54K |
| 2008 | 9 | 0 | $45K |
| 2009 | 2 | 0 | $0 |
| 2010 | 6 | 0 | $19K |
| 2011 | 9 | 0 | $16K |
| 2012 | 3 | 0 | $27K |
| 2013 | 8 | 0 | $128K |
| 2014 | 2 | 0 | $0 |
| 2015 | 6 | 0 | $35K |
| 2016 | 5 | 0 | $27K |
| 2018 | 7 | 0 | $223K |
| 2019 | 3 | 0 | $0 |
| 2020 | 4 | 0 | $4.4M |
| 2021 | 3 | 0 | $8K |
| 2022 | 4 | 0 | $13K |
| 2023 | 2 | 0 | $1K |
| 2024 | 8 | 0 | $17K |
| 2025 | 4 | 0 | $14K |
| 2026 | 5 | 0 | $0 |
Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.
Notable events
Costliest records
- Flood · May 18, 2020$4.4MNOAA name: Arenac County · NOAA record 897155
- Thunderstorm Wind · Aug 28, 2018$75KNOAA name: Arenac County · NOAA record 782809
- Tornado · Aug 28, 2018$70KNOAA name: Arenac County · NOAA record 782818
- Ice Storm · Apr 11, 2013$50KNOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 450062
- Thunderstorm Wind · May 20, 2013$45KNOAA name: Arenac County · NOAA record 456333
Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.
Flood insurance claims (NFIP)
The National Flood Insurance Program paid $2.0M on 121 claims in Arenac County from 1980 to 2020.
| Year | Claims | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 40 | $1.4M |
| 1986 | 33 | $79K |
| 2018 | 12 | $391K |
| 1990 | 6 | $33K |
| 2004 | 5 | $10K |
A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.
Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in Arenac County
A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.
| Hazard | Prob. | Basis, from the county record |
|---|---|---|
| Severe Thunderstorm | 3 | 82 NCEI events over 31 years (2.65/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Flood, External | 3 | 14 NCEI events over 31 years (0.45/yr). 3 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm | 3 | 54 NCEI events over 31 years (1.74/yr). 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Hurricane / Tropical Storm | 2 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Tornado | 2 | 5 NCEI events over 31 years (0.16/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Temperature Extremes | 2 | 11 NCEI events over 31 years (0.35/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Drought | 2 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| High Wind (non-convective) | 2 | 7 NCEI events over 31 years (0.23/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Dam Inundation | 2 | 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county. |
| Epidemic | 2 | 2 federal disaster declarations naming the county. |
| Wild Fire | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Earthquake | 1 | No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Landslide | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Tidal Wave / Tsunami | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
| Volcano | 1 | No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county. |
A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in Arenac County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.
How this page was made
- Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
- NOAA files some events against a county and others against an NWS forecast zone, and publishes a code for both. Records are counted as Arenac County by that code — county records by the county's own FIPS code, zone records through the National Weather Service's published list of which counties each zone covers. No name matching is involved. Of 174 records, 98 were filed against this county and 76 against a forecast zone covering it. A zone storm is counted in every county its zone covers, and its damage figure is the whole storm's, not this county's share — NOAA does not publish that split. So these figures describe this county; they must not be added up across counties. Left out: 2% of Michigan's NOAA records, which are marine zones or zones NWS does not map to a county.
- Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.
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Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.