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Saguache County, Colorado: hazard history

What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.

At a glance

Storm events recorded by NOAA
1,153
1996 to 2026
People killed and injured in those events
10 / 11
Deaths (direct and indirect) / injuries (direct)
Property damage NOAA recorded
$15.8M
Nominal dollars, not adjusted for inflation
FEMA disaster declarations naming this county
9
1970 to 2020
NFIP flood insurance claims
1
1981 to 1981; a count, not a rate
NFIP payments on those claims
$5K
Nominal dollars

What this means

  • The event NOAA recorded most often here is Winter Storm, with 535 records.
  • The costliest single record is Flood in 1999: $8.6M in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
  • The deadliest record is Avalanche in 2014, with 2 deaths.
  • FEMA has declared 9 disasters that named this county, most often for flood.
  • The worst year for flood insurance claims was 1981, with 1 claims.

What this can't tell you

  • What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
  • Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
  • Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
  • A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
  • Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.

Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)

FEMA declared 9 disasters that named Saguache County between 1970 and 2020.

FEMA disaster declarations naming Saguache County, by incident type
Incident typeDisastersMost recent
Flood32015
Biological22020
Coastal Storm12005
Drought11977
Fire12002
Snowstorm12003

Most recent declarations

  • DR-4498 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
  • EM-3436 2020 · Biological · Covid-19
  • DR-4229 2015 · Flood · Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides
  • EM-3224 2005 · Coastal Storm · Hurricane Katrina Evacuation
  • EM-3185 2003 · Snowstorm · Snow
  • DR-1421 2002 · Fire · Wildfires
  • DR-719 1984 · Flood · Severe Storms, Mudslides, Landslides & Flooding
  • EM-3025 1977 · Drought · Drought
  • DR-293 1970 · Flood · Heavy Rains & Flooding

Not counted above: 12 statewide declarations, which covered every county in Colorado. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.

Storms recorded by NOAA, by type

NOAA storm event records for Saguache County, 1996 to 2026, by event type
Event typeRecordsDeathsInjuriesProperty damage
Winter Storm53500$200K
High Wind23806$364K
Heavy Snow23610$0
Hail3400$0
Winter Weather3100$0
Cold/Wind Chill1300$0
Blizzard1210$4.5M
Wildfire1000$0
Drought700$0
Avalanche664$0
Flash Flood600$65K
Debris Flow510$0
Dense Fog500$0
Flood400$10.6M
Tornado400$0
Heavy Rain300$0
Thunderstorm Wind300$110K
Lightning111$0

Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone. A storm filed against a forecast zone is counted in every county that zone covers, with the whole storm's damage; do not add these figures across counties.

Year by year

NOAA storm event records in Saguache County each year. The busiest year was 1996, with 116 records.

Show the numbers for every year
NOAA storm event records in Saguache County by year
YearRecordsDeathsProperty damage
19961160$150K
19971002$575K
1998680$0
1999660$10.7M
2000740$0
2001310$4.2M
2002340$60K
2003241$0
2004312$0
2005280$100K
2006360$0
2007400$0
2008461$0
2009350$0
2010280$4K
2011291$0
2012270$0
2013270$10K
2014252$0
2015310$0
2016361$0
2017340$0
2018210$0
2019420$0
2020240$0
2021230$0
2022170$0
2023120$0
2024330$0
202590$0
202660$0

Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.

Notable events

Costliest records

  1. Flood · Apr 30, 1999$8.6M
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5694856
  2. Blizzard · Apr 11, 2001$4.0M
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5239264
  3. Flood · Apr 30, 1999$2.0M
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5694853
  4. Blizzard · Oct 24, 1997$200K
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5621984
  5. Blizzard · Oct 24, 1997$200K
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · 1 death · NOAA record 5621985

Deadliest records

  1. Avalanche · Feb 15, 20142 deaths
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · 3 injuries · NOAA record 502960
  2. Blizzard · Oct 24, 19971 death
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · $200K damage · NOAA record 5621985
  3. Heavy Snow · Dec 24, 19971 death
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5626631
  4. Lightning · Jul 27, 20031 death
    NOAA name: Saguache County · 1 injury · NOAA record 5376481
  5. Avalanche · Mar 20, 20041 death
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · 1 injury · NOAA record 5388760

Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.

Flood insurance claims (NFIP)

The National Flood Insurance Program paid $5K on 1 claims in Saguache County from 1981 to 1981.

Years with the most NFIP claims in Saguache County
YearClaimsPaid
19811$5K

A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.

Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in Saguache County

A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.

HazardProb.Basis, from the county record
Severe Thunderstorm338 NCEI events over 31 years (1.23/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Flood, External313 NCEI events over 31 years (0.42/yr). 3 federal disaster declarations naming the county.
Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm3814 NCEI events over 31 years (26.26/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county.
High Wind (non-convective)3238 NCEI events over 31 years (7.68/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Hurricane / Tropical Storm2No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county.
Tornado24 NCEI events over 31 years (0.13/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Temperature Extremes213 NCEI events over 31 years (0.42/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Drought27 NCEI events over 31 years (0.23/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county.
Wild Fire210 NCEI events over 31 years (0.32/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county.
Landslide211 NCEI events over 31 years (0.35/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Epidemic22 federal disaster declarations naming the county.
Earthquake1No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Tidal Wave / Tsunami1No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Volcano1No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Dam Inundation1No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.

A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in Saguache County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.

How this page was made

  • Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
  • NOAA files some events against a county and others against an NWS forecast zone, and publishes a code for both. Records are counted as Saguache County by that code — county records by the county's own FIPS code, zone records through the National Weather Service's published list of which counties each zone covers. No name matching is involved. Of 1,153 records, 52 were filed against this county and 1,101 against a forecast zone covering it. A zone storm is counted in every county its zone covers, and its damage figure is the whole storm's, not this county's share — NOAA does not publish that split. So these figures describe this county; they must not be added up across counties. Left out: 0% of Colorado's NOAA records, which are marine zones or zones NWS does not map to a county.
  • Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.

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Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.