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Mesa County, Colorado: hazard history

What federal records show has already happened here: disaster declarations, storms, and flood insurance claims. This is a record of the past. It is not a forecast and not a hazard score.

At a glance

Storm events recorded by NOAA
4,003
1996 to 2026
People killed and injured in those events
12 / 44
Deaths (direct and indirect) / injuries (direct)
Property damage NOAA recorded
$23.9M
Nominal dollars, not adjusted for inflation
FEMA disaster declarations naming this county
8
1977 to 2020
NFIP flood insurance claims
61
1978 to 2023; a count, not a rate
NFIP payments on those claims
$293K
Nominal dollars

What this means

  • The event NOAA recorded most often here is Winter Weather, with 1,070 records.
  • The costliest single record is Wildfire in 2023: $4.0M in property damage, in the dollars of that year.
  • The deadliest record is Debris Flow in 2014, with 3 deaths.
  • FEMA has declared 8 disasters that named this county, most often for fire.
  • The worst year for flood insurance claims was 1983, with 23 claims.

What this can't tell you

  • What happens next. Past events do not set the odds of the next one.
  • Anything before 1996 from NOAA. That is when NOAA began recording every event type; earlier files hold only tornado, hail and wind, so they are left out on purpose.
  • Today's cost. Damage and payments are in the dollars of the year they happened.
  • A flood rate. NFIP counts claims but not how many homes were insured, and many flooded homes carry no flood insurance.
  • Earthquakes, wildfire perimeters or radar-detected hail. Those records are not tied to counties.

Federal disaster declarations (FEMA)

FEMA declared 8 disasters that named Mesa County between 1977 and 2020.

FEMA disaster declarations naming Mesa County, by incident type
Incident typeDisastersMost recent
Fire32020
Biological22020
Coastal Storm12005
Drought11977
Flood11984

Most recent declarations

  • FM-5335 2020 · Fire · Pine Gulch Fire
  • EM-3436 2020 · Biological · Covid-19
  • DR-4498 2020 · Biological · Covid-19 Pandemic
  • EM-3224 2005 · Coastal Storm · Hurricane Katrina Evacuation
  • FM-2422 2002 · Fire · Co - Dierich Fire - 06/10/02
  • DR-1421 2002 · Fire · Wildfires
  • DR-719 1984 · Flood · Severe Storms, Mudslides, Landslides & Flooding
  • EM-3025 1977 · Drought · Drought

Not counted above: 12 statewide declarations, which covered every county in Colorado. A declaration is a decision to send federal help, not a measure of how bad an event was. Records run from 1953. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries.

Storms recorded by NOAA, by type

NOAA storm event records for Mesa County, 1996 to 2026, by event type
Event typeRecordsDeathsInjuriesProperty damage
Winter Weather1,07010$7K
Drought90000$0
Winter Storm46200$0
Heavy Snow28700$0
Frost/Freeze24300$0
High Wind17412$594K
Dense Fog16505$150K
Thunderstorm Wind12600$283K
Wildfire11503$19.2M
Flash Flood7000$805K
Heavy Rain6914$470K
Extreme Cold/Wind Chill6700$0
Hail5500$1.3M
Debris Flow3948$422K
Flood3810$191K
Strong Wind3500$309K
Funnel Cloud2300$0
Lightning1102$96K
Avalanche1031$6K
Tornado1000$1K
Blizzard700$0
Cold/Wind Chill700$100K
Dust Devil500$3K
Excessive Heat510$0
Dust Storm4019$0
Heat400$0
Ice Storm200$0

Records start in 1996. Damage is NOAA's estimate at the time, in nominal dollars, and is often rounded; it is not insurance claims data. A storm that crossed two NOAA zones in this county is recorded, and counted, once per zone. A storm filed against a forecast zone is counted in every county that zone covers, with the whole storm's damage; do not add these figures across counties.

Year by year

NOAA storm event records in Mesa County each year. The busiest year was 2005, with 211 records.

Show the numbers for every year
NOAA storm event records in Mesa County by year
YearRecordsDeathsProperty damage
1996680$203K
1997930$384K
1998600$433K
1999441$397K
2000540$80K
2001500$86K
20021201$123K
20031920$106K
20042030$40K
20052111$821K
20061902$165K
20071750$657K
20081220$26K
20091640$459K
20101560$104K
20111080$229K
20121860$10K
20131910$73K
2014943$130K
20151250$500K
2016800$22K
2017800$219K
20181770$196K
20191260$0
20201501$20
20211770$348K
20221222$40K
20231301$17.8M
2024990$126K
20252030$100K
2026530$0

Years with no record are left out of the table, not shown as zero.

Notable events

Costliest records

  1. Wildfire · Jun 24, 2023$4.0M
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 1119389
  2. Wildfire · Jul 1, 2023$4.0M
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 1119390
  3. Wildfire · Aug 1, 2023$4.0M
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 1119391
  4. Wildfire · Sep 1, 2023$4.0M
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 1119392
  5. Wildfire · Jun 21, 2007$500K
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 40944

Deadliest records

  1. Debris Flow · May 25, 20143 deaths
    NOAA name: Mesa County · $25K damage · NOAA record 524482
  2. Avalanche · Jan 30, 19991 death
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5685361
  3. Avalanche · Feb 24, 20021 death
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5282124
  4. Avalanche · Apr 1, 20051 death
    NOAA name: NWS forecast zone · NOAA record 5448566
  5. Heavy Rain · Aug 1, 20061 death
    NOAA name: Mesa County · NOAA record 5528868

Each line is one NOAA record, linked to its page at NOAA. One large storm can appear more than once if NOAA recorded it in several zones of this county. Dollars are nominal.

Flood insurance claims (NFIP)

The National Flood Insurance Program paid $293K on 61 claims in Mesa County from 1978 to 2023.

Years with the most NFIP claims in Mesa County
YearClaimsPaid
198323$140K
20118$8K
19848$56K
20152$0
20142$0

A count of claims, not a rate: NFIP publishes no count of insured homes beside it, and most flood damage is uninsured. Nominal dollars. Records run from 1978 to 2024; claims filed without a county code are not on any county page. Source: FEMA OpenFEMA FIMA NFIP Redacted Claims.

Hazard vulnerability analysis: the probability column for a facility in Mesa County

A hazard vulnerability analysis rates each hazard for probability, impact, preparedness and response. Probability is the one column the county’s federal record can fill — NCEI storm events from 1996 to 2026 and FEMA declarations naming the county — and this is what it says for a facility here, on the 0–3 scale of the all-hazards structure surveyors expect. The other six columns are the facility’s own judgment about its building, and Calchis leaves them blank.

HazardProb.Basis, from the county record
Severe Thunderstorm3192 NCEI events over 31 years (6.19/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Flood, External3177 NCEI events over 31 years (5.71/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county.
Snow Fall / Blizzard / Ice Storm31,828 NCEI events over 31 years (58.97/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Temperature Extremes3326 NCEI events over 31 years (10.52/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Drought3900 NCEI events over 31 years (29.03/yr). 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county.
Wild Fire3115 NCEI events over 31 years (3.71/yr). 3 federal disaster declarations naming the county.
High Wind (non-convective)3209 NCEI events over 31 years (6.74/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Landslide349 NCEI events over 31 years (1.58/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Hurricane / Tropical Storm2No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. 1 federal disaster declaration naming the county.
Tornado210 NCEI events over 31 years (0.32/yr). No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Epidemic22 federal disaster declarations naming the county.
Earthquake1No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Tidal Wave / Tsunami1No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Volcano1No events of this kind on the county's NCEI record over 31 years. No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.
Dam Inundation1No federal disaster declaration of this kind has named the county.

A dash means the record does not speak to that hazard; it is not a zero. Whether a finished document satisfies the CMS Emergency Preparedness Rule is the facility’s finding and its surveyor’s. Complete the HVA for a facility in Mesa County — the technological, human and hazardous-materials rows, the six facility columns, the approval and the printed document — or read the sample analysis on that page first.

How this page was made

  • Every figure is counted from public federal records held by Calchis: NOAA NCEI Storm Events, FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations, and FEMA NFIP claims. Nothing is modeled or estimated.
  • NOAA files some events against a county and others against an NWS forecast zone, and publishes a code for both. Records are counted as Mesa County by that code — county records by the county's own FIPS code, zone records through the National Weather Service's published list of which counties each zone covers. No name matching is involved. Of 4,003 records, 431 were filed against this county and 3,572 against a forecast zone covering it. A zone storm is counted in every county its zone covers, and its damage figure is the whole storm's, not this county's share — NOAA does not publish that split. So these figures describe this county; they must not be added up across counties. Left out: 0% of Colorado's NOAA records, which are marine zones or zones NWS does not map to a county.
  • Counts last rebuilt from the source records on Sep 15, 2026.

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Recorded history from federal public records. Not a hazard score, a risk score, or a forecast, and not a substitute for professional actuarial or emergency-management assessment. Decision-support intelligence — not a primary alerting or dispatch system. Verify against official sources.